TLDR
- Bitcoin rallied nearly 15% in one week, climbing from around $108,600 to over $123,000 and approaching its all-time high of $124,500.
- Strong US institutional demand drove the surge, with onchain data showing $1.6 billion in buying pressure and a $92 Coinbase premium indicating American investors are paying more.
- The rally occurred during a US government shutdown, with markets appearing to ignore policy uncertainty while the Federal Reserve adopts a more dovish stance.
- Analysts expect continued price discovery next week if Bitcoin holds above $120,000, though resistance is expected around $130,000.
- The total crypto market cap surpassed $4.21 trillion, while economists point to global currency debasement and geopolitical uncertainty as structural factors supporting the rally.
Bitcoin has surged nearly 15% over the past week. The cryptocurrency climbed from around $108,600 last Friday to trade above $123,000 on October 3rd.
The rally pushed the total crypto market cap above $4.21 trillion. Bitcoin is now trading within close range of its all-time high near $124,500.
This marks one of Bitcoin’s strongest starts to October on record. The cryptocurrency had spent the previous months from July through September trading in a narrow range.
The surge comes despite a US government shutdown creating policy uncertainty. Federal agencies have furloughed staff and economic data releases face delays.
Bitcoin has risen 8% since the shutdown began. Markets appear to be ignoring the government halt.
Onchain data reveals strong buying pressure behind the rally. Analyst Maartunn identified a spike of over $1.6 billion in taker buy volume across exchanges in just one hour.
The Coinbase Premium Gap reached $91.86. This metric measures price differences between Coinbase and Binance exchanges.
US Institutional Demand Drives Price Action
US investors are paying nearly $92 more per Bitcoin on Coinbase compared to Binance. This signals strong demand from American buyers.
However, this premium level matches highs from mid-August. That’s when bullish momentum historically cooled earlier in 2025.
The analysts said macro conditions remain supportive. Inflation is easing and the Federal Reserve is adopting a more dovish stance.
The government shutdown has complicated Federal Reserve decisions. Inflation and jobs data could be postponed, which increases speculative flows into crypto.
Price Discovery Expected Next Week
Crypto trader Jelle noted that $120,000 is being turned into support. If Bitcoin holds this level over the weekend, price discovery could resume early next week.
$120,000 being turned into support today.
Hold it over the weekend, and I expect price discovery tor resume as early as next week.
Bring it on.#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/sEzVxj19LU
— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) October 3, 2025
Trader Rekt Capital described this as “Phase 3 Price Discovery” of the current cycle. This is the breakout phase where new highs get established.
Analyst Skew identified heavy sell orders clustering around $130,000. This makes that level the next key resistance point.
Economist Noelle Acheson sees structural differences in this rally. She writes the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter.
Acheson pointed to sustained global currency debasement as a new factor. Growing geopolitical uncertainty is encouraging a shift toward hard assets like Bitcoin.
She said previous cycles didn’t have this level of sustained global debasement. There’s also a gradual pivot away from the US dollar toward global hard assets.
Acheson suggested this surge is driven by deeper structural shifts rather than pure speculation. This could give the rally staying power unlike recent records in July and August that faced violent selloffs.
Bitcoin traded well below $110,000 last weekend before beginning its climb. The cryptocurrency gained about 3% in the past 24 hours alone to reach current levels around $123,300.
