TLDR
- Gemini’s crypto rewards card has seen rapid adoption, with sign-ups increasing from 8,000 to 31,000 in less than a year.
- The new EU MiCA license allows Gemini to expand into staking and derivatives, boosting its presence in European markets.
- Mizuho analysts set a $30 price target for Gemini, indicating 25% upside driven by strong user conversion and global expansion.
- Gemini’s rewards card “flywheel effect” drives 50% of cardholders to become active exchange traders, boosting trading volumes.
Gemini’s stock, under the ticker GEMI, is projected to climb between 20% and 25% from its current levels, driven by the increasing adoption of its crypto rewards card and the recent approval of its EU license. The exchange’s innovative crypto rewards card has attracted significant attention, with user sign-ups growing rapidly. Analysts are optimistic about Gemini’s growth potential, with a new European market license opening the door to further expansion.
Surge in Crypto Rewards Card Adoption
Gemini’s credit card has quickly become a core growth driver for the exchange. Since its launch, sign-ups for the card have surged from approximately 8,000 in 2024 to nearly 31,000 by August 2025. The card allows users to earn bitcoin, ether, or other tokens as cashback on everyday purchases. These rewards are deposited instantly into their Gemini exchange accounts.
The rapid growth of the crypto rewards card has created a “flywheel effect,” according to Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins. Around 50% of cardholders are converting into active exchange traders, significantly increasing trading volumes and engagement. This conversion rate is expected to drive consistent growth for the platform.
European Expansion with MiCA License
In addition to its domestic growth, Gemini has secured an important license under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework. This license allows Gemini to expand into regulated offerings across the EU, including staking, derivatives, and other crypto services. The license opens up a large and growing market for the platform, which is expected to drive additional revenue streams in the coming years.
The European expansion is seen as a key element in Gemini’s long-term growth strategy. The MiCA license will allow the platform to offer a broader range of services to European users, which could boost user acquisition and retention. This regulatory approval also strengthens Gemini’s reputation as a compliant and trusted platform in global markets.
Analyst Ratings and Growth Projections
Analysts are divided in their outlook on Gemini’s stock, with some rating it a “buy” while others maintain a “hold” stance. As of October 2025, 11 analysts have initiated coverage on GEMI, with six recommending a “buy” and five holding a more cautious view. Mizuho Securities has set a $30 price target for Gemini, implying a potential 25% upside from the stock’s current price of around $25.
Despite this positive outlook, KBW analysts have taken a more cautious view, warning that Gemini may remain unprofitable for the forecast period, even with its rapid growth. They acknowledge that Gemini’s growth profile outpaces its competitors, but profitability remains a concern in the short term.
Gemini’s stock is set for significant growth as it continues to attract more users and expand its product offerings. The combination of its successful crypto rewards card and the new European license provides a solid foundation for future growth. However, as the company continues to scale, its ability to turn a profit will be crucial in determining its long-term market position.
