TLDR
- The XRP price has surged by over 7% in the past 24 hours, reaching $2.55.
- XRP’s one-year trend remains strong, with a 350% increase despite recent market volatility.
- The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has dropped to 0.95, signaling that most holders are selling at a loss.
- SOPR’s current level suggests a potential 35% rally for XRP, similar to previous rebounds.
- Long-term holders have reduced their positions in recent weeks, showing hesitation despite the market’s recovery.
The XRP price has recently climbed over 7%, reaching $2.55. This surge follows a broader recovery in the crypto market. Despite the market’s turbulence, XRP‘s one-year trend remains strong, up by over 350%. This suggests the crash is more of a short-term reset than a trend reversal. However, two on-chain metrics present differing views on whether XRP will continue rising or consolidate.
SOPR Shows Potential for 35% Rally in XRP Price
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric has dropped to its lowest level in six months. A reading of 0.95 suggests most holders are selling at a loss. This could signal that selling pressure has reached its peak. When SOPR falls below 1, it often indicates exhaustion among sellers, suggesting a potential price rebound.
The last time the SOPR approached this level was in early April, when it hit 0.92. At that time, the XRP price surged from $1.90 to $2.58, representing a 35% rise. If the same pattern repeats, XRP could target prices between $3.10 and $3.35. A breakout above these levels would signal a return to bullish momentum for the XRP price.
Long-Term Holders Remain Cautious Despite Market Stability
While SOPR hints at a potential rally, long-term holders have shown caution. Data from Glassnode’s Hodler Net Position Change reveals a decline in accumulation. On October 2, long-term wallets added 163.68 million XRP; however, by October 12, this number had dropped to 119.16 million XRP. This 27% decrease suggests that older holders are reducing their positions, despite the market’s recovery.
This hesitation is significant because long-term holders typically provide stability during periods of volatility. Their reluctance to commit could slow the pace of XRP’s recovery. Until these investors begin adding more XRP to their holdings, the price rebound may lack momentum. This leaves the XRP price vulnerable to short-term range-bound movement.
The XRP price remains within a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart. This formation indicates consolidation after a period of significant volatility. The immediate resistance level is near $2.72; a breakout above this level would suggest renewed buying strength. If the XRP price holds above $2.72, it could rise toward $3.10, $3.35, or even $3.66, consistent with the 35% rally predicted by the SOPR metric.
