TLDR
- Ether trades near $4,129 while Lee and Hayes project a rise to $10,000.
- A $10K target represents a 142% gain from Ethereum’s current price.
- Historical Q4 data suggest a 21.36% average return since 2016.
- Analysts see potential as ETH remains up 57% over the past 12 months.
Ethereum’s recent price drop has not shaken the confidence of two major crypto figures. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and BitMEX chair Tom Lee have both reiterated their bold forecasts that Ether (ETH) will reach between $10,000 and $12,000 by the end of this year. Their renewed optimism comes even as the cryptocurrency market faces increased volatility and declining investor sentiment.
Lee and Hayes Maintain Their Year-End Forecasts
During an appearance on the Bankless podcast, Tom Lee shared his outlook for Ethereum’s price trajectory, predicting a rise toward the $10,000 to $12,000 range. Hayes, who joined the same discussion, said he would “stay consistent” with his $10,000 year-end target.
At the time of the interview, Ether was trading near $4,129, representing a potential 142% upside if their predictions materialize. Lee explained that this move would not represent excessive speculation, but rather the beginning of new price discovery. “Ethereum’s basically been basing for four years now, just broke out of the range, so to me, it wouldn’t be a blow off top, but rather seeking essentially price discovery at a new level,” he said.
Both analysts have maintained bullish views throughout the year, despite several pullbacks in the broader crypto market. They believe Ethereum’s technical and structural developments, along with renewed investor interest, could support a strong rally in the months ahead.
Market Conditions and Ethereum’s Recent Performance
Ethereum has traded within a broad range since reaching its all-time high of $4,878 in 2021. It briefly reclaimed that level in August before retracing, and it has not revisited those highs since. Despite the recent downturn, Ether remains up more than 57% over the past year, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
The market recently faced a sharp correction, with over $19 billion in liquidations recorded across crypto assets. Ether’s price dropped from around $4,350 to near $4,100 during the event. Hayes and Lee remain undeterred, suggesting that short-term volatility does not alter their long-term outlook.
Lee added that he expects 2025 to bring more fundamental progress for Ethereum. “I think there would be a lot of fundamental things happening next year,” he noted, adding that while $12,000 could be a key level, it would not necessarily represent the end of the cycle.
Historical Trends Indicate a More Conservative Path
While the forecasts from Lee and Hayes remain aggressive, historical data tells a more cautious story. According to data from CoinGlass, Ethereum has averaged a 21.36% gain during the fourth quarter since 2016. Based on this average, Ether would likely end the year closer to $5,000 rather than $10,000.
This projection aligns more closely with the expectations of other market observers. Tesseract CEO James Harris recently said that he anticipates Ethereum reaching around $6,500 by year-end, describing it as a more attainable level.
Analysts See Opportunity After Market Pullback
Other analysts see recent price weakness as an opportunity. MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that the ETH/BTC pair fell to 0.032 after the recent drop, calling it an “ideal zone for buys.” He added that if the pair establishes a higher low, Ethereum could be set for a move toward new highs.
Despite varying opinions, both Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes continue to stand by their forecasts. Their $10,000 target, if realized, would mark a new phase for Ethereum and signal renewed strength in the broader digital asset market.
