TLDR
- Whales withdrew $169 million worth of Solana from exchanges, showing strong accumulation behavior and confidence in the asset’s long-term value.
- Solana price found support at $180 after testing key ascending trendline, currently trading around $197 as it attempts to reclaim the $200 level.
- Data shows 76% of retail traders hold net long positions on Solana, a historically bullish signal that has preceded positive price returns.
- Treasury companies including Solmate and SOL Strategies purchased large amounts of SOL below $200, with institutional accumulation accelerating at current price levels.
- Market participants are positioning ahead of the spot Solana ETF decision scheduled for October 16, which could drive increased demand.
Solana has shown resilience after recent market volatility, with the cryptocurrency finding support near the $180 level. The price currently trades around $197 as buyers work to push the asset back above the $200 threshold.
The cryptocurrency tested an ascending trendline that extends from July lows. This support zone attracted active buying interest from investors looking to enter at lower price points.
Large holders moved $169 million worth of SOL off exchanges according to data from CoinGlass. These outflows typically signal accumulation as investors transfer assets to private wallets for longer-term holding rather than active trading.
Exchange balance data shows a consistent decline in Solana held on trading platforms. This pattern reinforces the accumulation thesis as supply becomes less available for immediate selling.
The Stochastic RSI indicator has rebounded from oversold territory on the daily chart. This technical signal suggests buying pressure may be improving after the recent correction.
Retail Traders Show Bullish Sentiment
Analytics platform Hyblock reported that 76% of retail accounts currently hold net long positions on Solana. This percentage represents the highest reading among major cryptocurrencies for true retail long percentage.
Among the majors, $SOL has the highest percentile when it comes to true retail long% (TRA).
76% of retail accounts in a position on SOL are in a net long.
Historically, what does this mean?
We create a signal that looks at every occurrence where TRA >= 75.Forward returns… pic.twitter.com/qkEpbmc6xn
— Hyblock (@hyblockcapital) October 13, 2025
Historical analysis shows that when this metric exceeds 75%, Solana’s seven-day forward returns improve. The mean and median returns increase from around 2.25% to over 5% during these periods.
The risk-reward ratio nearly doubles when retail long positions reach these levels. Average drawdowns also decrease, indicating reduced downside volatility alongside stronger upward momentum.
Only 10% of Binance-listed altcoins remain above their 200-day moving average. This widespread weakness across the altcoin market historically precedes accumulation phases and potential rebounds.
Treasury Companies Increase Holdings
Solmate purchased $50 million worth of SOL from the Solana Foundation at a 15% discount. ARK Invest disclosed an 11.5% ownership stake in the treasury company, which raised $300 million to build its digital asset holdings.
🚨JUST IN: Solana treasury company @oursolmate (NASDAQ: SLMT) has purchased $50M worth of $SOL from the Solana Foundation at a 15% discount, while Ark Invest has disclosed a new ~11.5% ownership stake in the company.
Solmate recently raised $300M to build its digital asset… pic.twitter.com/2eiERqx3sK
— SolanaFloor (@SolanaFloor) October 14, 2025
SOL Strategies acquired an additional 88,433 SOL tokens at an average price of $193.93 per coin. The purchase included 79,000 locked tokens from the foundation, bringing the company’s total holdings to 523,433 SOL.
The cryptocurrency broke below its 200-day exponential moving average with a daily close under $190. This marked the first bearish break of structure since February on higher timeframes.
Solana now trades between its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages. This compression zone typically reflects market indecision before a larger directional move occurs.
Whale order activity on Solana has begun rising again according to market analysts. This pattern has historically preceded price rallies ranging from 40% to 70% in previous cycles.
Market participants are positioning ahead of the spot Solana ETF decision scheduled for October 16. A favorable outcome could tighten supply and drive increased spot demand for the cryptocurrency.
