TLDR
- Retail traders hold 94% long positions on Ether, which often acts as a contrarian indicator suggesting a possible price reversal
- Ether funding rates on Binance remain between 0.01%-0.03%, showing healthy moderate levels far below the overheated 0.1%-0.2% seen in 2021
- A bearish MACD crossover is forming on Ethereum’s weekly chart, similar to patterns that previously led to 43% and 61% corrections
- BitMine Immersion Technologies added over 300,000 ETH this week worth $417 million, bringing their total reserve to $9.3 billion
- Ether continues trading below $4,000 after last Friday’s flash crash, consolidating between key moving averages
Ether continues to trade below the $4,000 mark following last Friday’s flash crash. The second-largest cryptocurrency is consolidating between its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages.
This technical zone shows an ongoing battle between short-term and long-term market trends. The price action reflects uncertainty in the current market environment.
Retail traders are showing strong optimism about Ether’s future price movement. Data from Hyblock Capital shows that True Retail Accounts long percentage has reached 94%.
True Retail Accounts Long% is getting high among quite a few coins.
In particular:
– ETH: 90th percentile
– BTC: 94th percentile
– SOL: 86th percentile
– HYPE: 82nd percentileThe correlation matrix on these four tickers shows us that true retail accounts long% is negativelyā¦ pic.twitter.com/kSecBA4FOO
— Hyblock (@hyblockcapital) October 15, 2025
This places Ether at the 90th percentile, one of the highest levels across major crypto assets. Bitcoin sits at 94%, while Solana shows 86% retail long positioning.
The high level of retail long positions often acts as a contrarian indicator. Hyblock Capital notes that retail long positioning has an inverse correlation with price at -0.86 for ETH.
This means that when retail longs reach extreme highs, the likelihood of a price reversal increases. The 90th percentile reading suggests retail sentiment is heavily skewed toward expecting price increases.
Historically, extreme retail positioning in outlier territory can signal overcrowding in long positions. This creates conditions where traders might start taking profits or face liquidations.
Funding Rates Show Healthy Market Structure
Crypto analyst Pelin Ay provided analysis of the derivatives market structure. Funding rates remain positive but restrained on Binance.
Current funding levels sit between 0.01% and 0.03%. These levels indicate a healthy mid-phase uptrend, far below overheated conditions.
During the 2021 bull phase, funding rates reached 0.1% to 0.2%. The current moderate leverage suggests the market is not yet euphoric.
Ay explained that moderate leverage combined with improving spot demand could support a rally toward $4,500 to $5,000. However, any sudden surge in funding above 0.05% could mark overcrowded longs.
Such a scenario might trigger short-term pullbacks in the price.
Bearish MACD Pattern Forms on Weekly Chart
Technical analysis reveals a bearish MACD crossover forming on Ethereum’s weekly chart. An analyst identified this pattern as similar to previous setups that led to corrections.
Ethereum $ETH is on the verge of a bearish MACD crossover on the weekly chart. The last two times it happened, the price dropped 43% and 61%. pic.twitter.com/RRIjFeR63k
— Ali (@ali_charts) October 16, 2025
Past occurrences of this pattern resulted in declines of 43% and 61%. The signal line is now tilting above the MACD line.
This suggests bearish momentum could intensify if the crossover confirms. The broader structure remains resilient with higher lows maintained since January 2025.
Support near $3,700 has held firm during recent pullbacks. The 50-week moving average continues acting as a strong structural base.
While short-term pressure may persist, the long-term outlook depends on whether institutional demand continues. The technical setup creates a mixed picture for traders.
BitMine Immersion Technologies made large purchases during the recent price dip. The company, chaired by Tom Lee, accumulated 104,336 ETH worth around $417 million on Thursday.
BREAKING: šŗšø Bitmine has bought 104,336 $ETH worth $417 million today.
Big money is buying the dips. pic.twitter.com/oqdMm4qlyn
— Ash Crypto (@Ashcryptoreal) October 16, 2025
This purchase followed an earlier acquisition of over 202,000 ETH on Sunday. BitMine’s total ETH reserve now has a current market value of $9.3 billion.
The company has consistently expanded its holdings throughout 2025. This demonstrates conviction in Ethereum’s long-term potential despite short-term technical concerns.
Corporate appetite for ETH typically reduces exchange reserves. This can provide support during sell-offs and influence market psychology.
Tom Lee has maintained his year-end target of $10,000 per ETH. His outlook is supported by increasing institutional and spot market demand.
