TLDR
- Solana trades at $182 after losing $200 support and failing to break resistance.
- Analyst warns SOL may drop to $40 in mid-term if current pattern continues.
- Falling wedge and $170–$180 zone are critical for a potential short-term bounce.
- Institutional buying has slowed, adding pressure to Solana’s market structure.
As Solana (SOL) struggles to hold key support levels, traders are now watching closely for signs of a deeper correction. An analyst has warned that SOL could face a steep decline in the coming weeks, as technical patterns and weakening momentum weigh on its performance. With investor sentiment shifting and derivatives activity slowing down, many are asking whether the expected “Solana season” has already ended.
Solana Trades Below Key Support Amid Weak Recovery
Solana’s price recently slipped below the $180 support zone, moving in line with a broader market pullback. After falling to a two-month low of $168 last week, the asset had shown signs of recovery earlier this week, briefly pushing toward the $210 resistance.
However, the recovery was short-lived. On Friday, Solana failed to hold the $200 level, raising concerns about a possible bearish continuation. At the time of reporting, SOL is trading at $182, recording a 12.6% drop over the last 24 hours.
Analyst “Crypto Bullet” suggested that Solana’s market structure may be setting up for a 75% drop. According to his analysis, SOL completed a five-wave upward move earlier this year when it peaked at $293. He believes this could mark the end of the bull cycle and the beginning of an ABC correction pattern.
Analysts Warn of Mid-Term Breakdown Toward $40
Crypto Bullet noted that SOL might have already entered the “C wave,” which could lead to more losses. He stated, “The monthly candle still has 2 weeks to close green, but frankly speaking, Solana looks cooked.” He added that even if the price makes a new short-term high, the larger correction may already be underway.
If his projection holds, Solana could decline toward the $40 range over the mid-term. He also warned investors to prepare for this outcome if key levels continue to break. The analyst pointed to fading momentum and said that even a bounce to the $240–$250 zone would only be temporary before a deeper move down.
Another market analyst, Ted Pillows, also pointed to weakening support from institutional buyers. “Solana treasury companies are in free fall right now,” he said, adding that the absence of institutional bids is making it harder for SOL to maintain upward pressure.
Derivatives and Institutional Activity Show Weakness
Institutional trading activity has declined across several Solana-linked products in recent weeks. This reduction in volume has coincided with increased volatility in spot markets and less interest from large players.
According to Pillows, until institutional buying resumes, Solana may continue to face pressure from both technical and market sentiment standpoints. He added that investors should closely track any changes in on-chain activity and treasury allocations.
The drop in open interest and funding rates in derivatives markets further suggests that traders are becoming cautious. This shift often signals an uncertain trend and may prevent strong rallies in the short term.
Support Between $170–$180 Remains Crucial
Some traders are still watching key support levels for a possible bounce. Analyst “Crypto Yapper” noted that Solana is testing the lower edge of a two-month falling wedge. This wedge also overlaps with a horizontal support zone between $170 and $180, which has acted as a major level throughout the year.
He stated that holding this support could lead to a 15% to 20% rebound. This would potentially bring SOL back to the $210–$220 resistance range. “The setup is still valid as long as price stays above $170,” he added.
Another analyst, “Man of Bitcoin,” pointed to a possible bullish structure forming. He believes that a 1-2 setup may push the price higher if buyers return soon. However, both analysts agreed that losing $170 could trigger more selling.
Technical Conditions Remain Mixed
The broader market continues to show signs of uncertainty, with many altcoins facing corrections. Solana’s next move may depend on whether it can hold the $170–$180 zone. If this support fails, the risk of further downside increases.
Meanwhile, if buyers step in and reclaim $200, short-term sentiment may shift. Until then, analysts remain divided on whether a larger drop is imminent or if a bounce is possible.
