TLDR
- Gold has gained 60% in 2025, supported by $17.3B monthly central bank buying
- Bitcoin fell 9% in October 2025 and is trading around $105,000 after crash
- Analysts predict Bitcoin may drop to $70K or rebound to $150K by Q4 2025
- Central banks added 146 tonnes of gold in one month amid dollar concerns
Bitcoin remains under pressure following the 2024 crypto crash, trading near $105,000 as market sentiment weakens. Meanwhile, gold has surged 60% in 2025, gaining traction among risk-averse investors. With central banks increasing gold reserves and geopolitical concerns rising, investor priorities appear to be shifting. This development signals growing caution, raising questions about Bitcoin’s future role and its ability to recover before year-end.
Bitcoin’s Price Under Scrutiny as Analysts Split on Q4 Outlook
Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 has drawn mixed views from analysts. After the October correction of 9%, some expect further downside. Jon Glover, an Elliott Wave analyst, said the current cycle resembles previous bear markets and could push Bitcoin down to $70,000. Historical halving patterns, particularly the 18-month cooling phase, support this view.
Other analysts remain more optimistic. Ash Crypto, who previously predicted the $106,000 low, suggests a rebound may occur before year-end. He believes seasonal trends and short squeezes in derivatives could push Bitcoin toward $150,000. Market data also shows signs of potential recovery, though no clear trend has formed yet.
On-chain metrics provide additional context. Data from CoinDesk shows that long-term holders are not exiting the market despite the October sell-off. Metrics such as spent output profit ratio and coin days destroyed show minimal panic among core holders. However, Bitcoin ETF inflows have slowed, and liquidity remains a concern as noted by CoinMarketCap.
Gold’s Rising Demand Driven by Stability and Central Bank Buying
Gold has gained over 60% in 2025, sharply outperforming Bitcoin. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research referred to gold as the “new Bitcoin” due to its recent performance. Gold’s stability during global market stress has strengthened its appeal among institutional and retail investors alike.
Central banks have been a major force behind gold’s rise. Institutions added 146 tonnes of gold in a single month, equal to $17.3 billion, based on TalkMarkets data. This trend points to a move away from dollar-based assets, especially during geopolitical tensions.
The ongoing U.S.-China trade issues and policy risks have also influenced gold’s momentum. After Trump proposed 100% tariffs on Chinese exports, investors reduced crypto exposure and moved into gold. During that period, Bitcoin prices dropped, while gold continued to climb, according to CNBC.
Risk Management Drives Asset Reallocation Strategies
Investment firms and advisors are adjusting their portfolios. Many suggest reducing exposure to Bitcoin in favor of more stable assets. With volatility increasing in the crypto market, gold is becoming the preferred hedge for capital preservation.
Ed Yardeni has advocated for increasing gold ETF allocations, citing gold’s stronger performance and lower risk. The World Gold Council also reported a rise in institutional gold holdings, especially in regions facing economic instability.
Bitcoin still offers upside, though it comes with higher risks. Past cycles have shown that Bitcoin can rebound sharply after low-volatility phases. However, any future rally may depend on macroeconomic conditions, such as inflation trends and possible interest rate cuts.
Watching Macroeconomic Signals and Market Liquidity
Investors are closely tracking inflation data and Federal Reserve decisions. A June CPI reading of 2.7% has raised the possibility of rate cuts. Lower rates could support Bitcoin’s recovery if risk sentiment improves. However, until liquidity returns to the crypto market, short-term uncertainty is likely to persist.
Gold, by contrast, has seen steady demand. Its lower volatility and strong buying support from central banks make it more attractive under current conditions. For now, Bitcoin’s price outlook remains uncertain while gold continues to gain as a trusted store of value.
