TLDR
- Peter Brandt compared Bitcoin’s current chart to the 1977 soybean crash, which dropped 50%.
- He warned that MSTR could suffer major losses if Bitcoin follows the same historical pattern.
- Brandt stated that Bitcoin may either rise to 250000 or fall back toward 60000.
- MSTR holds over 200000 Bitcoin and is exposed to high risk if prices sharply decline.
- Crypto analyst Crypto₿irb claimed that the Bitcoin market is near the end of its current cycle.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has raised alarms about Bitcoin’s current pattern and compared it to the 1977 soybean crash. He warned that MSTR, which holds over 200,000 BTC, could face deep losses. The potential 50% drop in Bitcoin may push MSTR’s leveraged position into severe decline.
Bitcoin’s Pattern Mirrors Soybeans’ Historic Crash
Peter Brandt noted that Bitcoin now exhibits a broadening top, reminiscent of the 1977 soybean price collapse. At that time, soybeans dropped by 50% after forming a similar structure, leading to sharp market losses. Brandt believes Bitcoin could follow that same path.
In 1977 Soybeans formed a broadening top and then declined 50% in value
Bitcoin today is forming a similar pattern. A 50% decline in $BTC will put $MSTR underwater
Whether I am right or wrong, you have to admit this old guy has the gonads to make big calls pic.twitter.com/f7Qi4J8WpN— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 21, 2025
He stated,
“Anyone who bets 5% of their pot per trade will self-destruct. It’s just a question of time.”
This pattern puts pressure on MSTR, which remains heavily exposed to Bitcoin’s price swings. If BTC falls significantly, MSTR could quickly go underwater.
Brandt added that Bitcoin’s future sits between two outcomes: a rise to $250,000 or a fall toward $60,000. He said he wants to be long if Bitcoin rises and short if it falls. This represents a more balanced outlook compared to his earlier bullish stance.
MSTR Could Suffer From A Deep Bitcoin Drawdown
MSTR may face heavy damage if Bitcoin retraces in line with Brandt’s historical comparison. The company holds more than 200,000 BTC, exposing it to high downside risk. A 50% decline in BTC could significantly devalue its assets.
Brandt’s analysis signals concern for leveraged firms like MSTR, which may face liquidity stress. He highlighted the risk, particularly if investors continue using margin strategies on falling assets. The potential downside scenario could severely affect MSTR’s stock value.
Crypto analyst Crypto₿irb also shared bearish signals, noting that Bitcoin may be nearing the end of its cycle. His model, “Cycle Peak Countdown,” claims the market is 99.3% through the current cycle. This adds further pressure on MSTR’s position as Bitcoin shows signs of exhaustion.
Market Shift As Analysts Debate Bitcoin’s Future
Brandt acknowledged opposing views but remained open, replying, “I’ll be first to admit you could be right.” Analyst TheMarketSniper argued that pattern similarity does not necessarily equate to outcome similarity, offering a different perspective. Brandt responded with openness, indicating readiness for both directions.
If you have #HVFmethod you would notice whilst the broadening structures look the same.
The Soybeans was an Ascending Megaphone on a bull trend => Bearish
Bitcoin is a Descending structure on a bull trend, eventually => Bullish.
Place a splitter between each for net gradient.… https://t.co/rYDOG4q9NB pic.twitter.com/IlGQteHyiT— TheMarketSniper – MBA, CMT. #HVFmethod (@themarketsniper) October 22, 2025
Meanwhile, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao reignited the Bitcoin vs gold debate, saying Bitcoin could surpass gold’s $30 trillion value. This sparked discussion as gold suffered its steepest drop since 2013. Some experts said capital is rotating from gold to Bitcoin.
As Bitcoin’s path remains uncertain, MSTR stays in the spotlight due to its huge BTC exposure. The stock’s fate could depend on whether Bitcoin crashes or continues climbing. Brandt’s warning suggests that MSTR could go underwater if history repeats itself.
