TLDR
- Galaxy Digital reduced its year-end Bitcoin forecast from $185,000 to $120,000 after recent market turbulence.
- The firm said Bitcoin has entered a maturity phase dominated by institutional flows and passive ETF activity.
- Nearly $20 billion in liquidations occurred during the October 10 market crash, the largest in crypto history.
- Long-term holders sold between 400,000 and 470,000 BTC, creating heavy resistance at critical price levels.
- ETF outflows exceeded $1 billion over five days, signaling a decline in bullish momentum.
Galaxy Digital has revised its Bitcoin year-end forecast from $185,000 to $120,000 after widespread liquidations and reduced institutional inflows. The firm said long-term holders distributed large volumes, increasing price resistance and slowing recovery momentum.
Galaxy Digital Warns of Slower Bitcoin Gains
Galaxy Digital stated that Bitcoin has entered a “maturity era” dominated by institutional flows and passive ETF activity. The firm said this phase reflects declining retail speculation and growing institutional influence over price trends.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, explained that Bitcoin’s performance depends more on institutional demand than retail interest. He added that the asset could “sustain above $100,000,” although future growth may remain moderate.
i’m lowering my BTC bullish EOY target to $120k (prev $185k) 👀
just sent this note to clients
whale distribution, non-BTC investments, treasury company malaise, and other factors contributed to BTC headwinds in 25
(long-term future still bullish, of course) pic.twitter.com/2aj1eoJlno
— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) November 5, 2025
The firm revised its target following the October 10 market crash that caused nearly $20 billion in leveraged liquidations. Galaxy Digital said the event marked the largest liquidation in cryptocurrency history and reset short-term market expectations.
Bitcoin Faces Resistance as ETFs See Outflows
Galaxy Digital estimated that 400,000 to 470,000 BTC, valued between $43 billion and $50 billion, were sold by long-term holders. This selling pressure created strong resistance at key price levels and limited near-term upside potential.
On-chain data from Galaxy Digital indicated falling spot demand and sustained ETF outflows following the crash. U.S. spot ETFs for BTC and ETH saw withdrawals exceeding $1 billion over five days, weakening bullish sentiment.
Thorn said, “Institutional and retail ETF holders now drive passive flows that shape Bitcoin’s stability.” He added that these flows reduced short-term volatility but also limited quick price gains.
Bitcoin has dropped about 20% from its October 26 high of $129,000, suggesting a cooling phase. Galaxy Digital said such corrections remain consistent with past cycles, where retracements sometimes reached 30%.
Thorn explained that capital has moved toward AI infrastructure companies and gold investments this quarter. He said, “Capital migration reflects a preference for sectors with higher liquidity and clearer earnings growth.”
Galaxy Digital said investors increasingly view gold as a hedge during geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic risk. The firm noted that “liquidity-rich conditions make investor attention finite,” pushing funds to emerging sectors like AI.
Crypto Analyst Warns of Possible Bitcoin Drop
According to CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno, Bitcoin could fall to $72,000 if bearish pressure continues. He cited persistent ETF outflows and declining spot activity since the October decline.
@CryptoQuant: BTC could fall to $72,000.
Analyst Julio Moreno warns that buyer activity is declining, with ETF outflows and a drop in the @Coinbase premium.
The Bull Score index is only 20 points.
Hashdex adds that the pressure comes from the Fed and long-term investors,… pic.twitter.com/VprDg7DjQS
— TU Airdrop Daily (@daily_tu69577) November 5, 2025
Bitcoin has since rebounded by over 5%, trading near $103,322 after dipping below $100,000 earlier this week. Galaxy Digital reported that ETH also recovered nearly 12%, trading around $3,400 after falling below $3,100.
Galaxy Digital maintained that Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals remain stable despite recent volatility. Thorn said, “Market cycles define crypto assets, and consolidation phases do not erase structural strength.”
As of now, Galaxy Digital continues to monitor ETF flows and institutional liquidity levels for signs of renewed momentum. The firm expects Bitcoin to hold above $100,000 through year-end if current market stability persists.
