TLDR
- Robinhood now assigns a 14 percent chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 before June 2026.
- Bitcoin recently dropped 5.4 percent from a high of $94,792 after facing strong resistance.
- The current Bitcoin price is $89,200, which is 68% below the $150,000 target.
- In October 2025, Robinhood gave a 63 percent chance of Bitcoin hitting $150,000.
- The odds fell gradually as Bitcoin entered a downward trend during the last quarter of 2025.
Robinhood has reduced its probability estimate for Bitcoin reaching $150,000 before June 2026 to 14%, reflecting reduced market confidence, after BTC failed to hold above key support levels and continued its correction from a recent peak, weakening bullish expectations.
The new odds come after a sharp decline from October 2025 projections, which placed Bitcoin’s chances at 63%, following a rally to an all-time high of $126,272. Current price action has lowered market sentiment, with Bitcoin trading at $89,200, well below previous targets.
Bitcoin Faces Strong Resistance After Short Rally
Bitcoin began January 2026 with five consecutive days of gains, pushing the price over 7% higher in early trading. The rally led to a two-month peak of $94,792 on January 5 before encountering firm resistance.
After the peak, Bitcoin fell below the $90,000 support zone, losing 5.4% from its local high. The drop erased short-term gains and limited bullish momentum.
Robinhood’s updated 14% estimate reflects market correction and reduced confidence in the asset reaching $150,000 in the short term. The company shared the revised forecast on X to highlight the change in sentiment.
14% chance Bitcoin hits $150k before June 2026.https://t.co/PwAzsgRhKv
Futures and cleared swaps trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Event contracts are offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC., a registered futures commission merchant and swap… pic.twitter.com/lYVUhohXUx
— Robinhood (@RobinhoodApp) January 8, 2026
BTC Price Action Drags Down Prediction Odds
Bitcoin reached a record high of $126,272 on October 6, 2025, pushing optimism about higher targets. At that time, Robinhood gave a 63% chance of BTC hitting $150,000 by June 2026.
But the bullish momentum weakened quickly as the price trend reversed during Q4 2025. By November 1, 2025, the probability dropped to 45%, reflecting the fading upward momentum.
As Bitcoin slid further to around $90,000 by the end of November, Robinhood’s model revised its odds to 27%. These figures continued to slide gradually during the correction.
In early January 2026, the likelihood stood at 13% but fluctuated between 12% and 16% in recent days. As of now, Robinhood’s latest estimate stands at 14%.
Robinhood Lowers Short-Term Bitcoin Forecast
Robinhood assigns varying probabilities based on shorter time frames for Bitcoin reaching $150,000. It gives a 9% chance of reaching the level before May 2026.
The chance drops further to 4% before April 2026 and just 2% before February. These projections reflect near-term resistance and weakened price performance.
Robert Kiyosaki, author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” had earlier predicted Bitcoin could soon reach $150,000. Tom Lee of Fundstrat also forecasted a potential climb to that level within 12 months in early 2024.
In March 2024, Standard Chartered raised its Bitcoin target to $150,000 based on market developments. Gautam Chhugani of Bernstein later echoed that forecast with a projection for 2026. Bitcoin now requires a 68% gain from its current $89,200 price to hit the $150,000 milestone.
