TLDR
- Bitcoin’s profit cycle has turned negative for the first time since 2023.
- The net realized profit/loss metric shows Bitcoin holders are realizing losses.
- A total of 69,000 BTC in losses have been realized in the past 30 days.
- The recent decline in realized profits contrasts with previous market highs.
- Short-term Bitcoin holders are exiting the market and booking losses.
Bitcoin holders have crossed a psychological threshold, with the market showing a shift from profit-taking to loss realization. The net realized profit/loss, which reflects gains and losses from on-chain transactions, has turned negative. This marks the first time since October 2023 that Bitcoin holders have realized more losses than profits, according to CryptoQuant analysts.
Bitcoin Profit Cycle Shows Signs of Strain
The net realized profit/loss metric, which tracks the total gains or losses when Bitcoin is moved on-chain, has entered negative territory. This shift suggests that many holders are now booking losses, a stark contrast to the profit-taking trend observed during the market’s recent bull run. Analysts at CryptoQuant highlighted this as a significant indicator of a potential market slowdown, with 69,000 BTC in losses realized during the past 30 days.
The current loss total amounts to approximately $6.18 billion, based on Bitcoin’s price of $89,700. This is a sharp contrast to the March 2024 peak when realized profits reached 1.2 million BTC. At that point, Bitcoin was trading near $100,000, signaling that the market was still strong. However, by October 2025, when Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, the realized profits had plummeted to just 331,000 BTC.
The shift to realized losses reflects a retreat from the market by short-term holders, often referred to as “Bitcoin tourists.” Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, pointed out that these short-term investors are cutting their losses. He emphasized that these holders, who typically enter the market during bull runs, are now moving out as Bitcoin prices dip below $90,000.
This exit of short-term holders signals that the market could be at a turning point. The data supports the view that the Bitcoin profit cycle is transforming, with long-term investors now taking a larger share of the market. Whether this trend signals the start of a bear market or a temporary reset remains to be seen.
Macroeconomic Factors Weigh on Bitcoin’s Price
While the decline in realized profits is significant, some analysts caution against reading too much into the data alone. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, a platform for on-chain options, noted that macroeconomic factors play a bigger role in Bitcoin’s price. He pointed to rising interest rates, the U.S. debt crisis, and global geopolitical shifts as the primary drivers behind Bitcoin’s recent downturn.
Dawson believes that the decline in realized profit and loss is more about a decrease in market volatility. He suggested that more sophisticated players are entering the space, which could lead to less dramatic price fluctuations. This could also be a factor in the reduced realized profits as large players adopt a more strategic approach to holding Bitcoin.
Despite the declining realized profit, Bitcoin’s price movements still seem closely tied to broader macroeconomic conditions. The influence of the Federal Reserve’s policies and the economic outlook in the U.S. continue to weigh heavily on Bitcoin’s price.
