TLDR
- Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao told CNBC he expects bitcoin to break its typical four-year cycle and reach new all-time highs in 2026 due to pro-crypto policies spreading globally.
- Zhao received a pardon from President Trump in October 2024 after serving four months in prison for Bank Secrecy Act violations related to inadequate anti-money-laundering controls at Binance.
- He is currently advising about a dozen governments on crypto regulation and asset tokenization while working on personal projects including Giggle Academy education platform and YZi Labs investment firm.
- Zhao denied any connection between his pardon and Trump-related crypto ventures, calling the pardon process a “black box” and saying he has never spoken with Trump.
- He rejected being portrayed as central to FTX’s collapse, saying Binance walked away from a potential acquisition after losing confidence in FTX’s financial disclosures.
Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao spoke publicly about his outlook for cryptocurrency markets in an interview with CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos. He told the network he believes bitcoin will break its historical four-year cycle this year.
JUST IN: Binance Founder CZ predicts Bitcoin will enter a supercycle this year. pic.twitter.com/7RRXo4TJmR
— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) January 23, 2026
Zhao predicted bitcoin will reach new all-time highs in 2026. He attributed this forecast to what he described as pro-crypto policies in the United States and other countries.
“With the U.S. being so pro-crypto now and other countries following, I think we could break the four-year cycle,” Zhao said. Bitcoin typically follows a four-year pattern tied to halving events, with price peaks occurring 14 to 18 months after each halving.
The next bitcoin halving is not expected until April 2028. Under the typical cycle, a new all-time high would not occur until late 2029.
Zhao said he cannot predict daily price movements but believes the long-term direction is clear. “If you look at the five, ten year horizon, it’s very easy to predict. We’re going to go up,” he told CNBC.
When asked if he agreed with Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood’s forecast of bitcoin reaching between $300,000 and $1.5 million by 2030, Zhao said he has “very strong feelings that there will probably be a supercycle this year.” He described himself as a long-term holder rather than an active trader.
Pardon Ends Felony Status
Zhao received a pardon from President Trump in October 2024. The pardon came after he served four months in prison for violations of the Bank Secrecy Act.
He pleaded guilty in 2023 to failing to implement adequate anti-money-laundering controls at Binance. Zhao stepped down as CEO as part of a settlement with U.S. authorities.
“I was a free man before, but with a felon status,” Zhao said. “Now I’m a real free man.”
Zhao said he did not expect to serve prison time. He pointed to past enforcement actions that typically resulted in deferred prosecution agreements or home confinement.
“No one in U.S. history had ever gone to jail for a single registration failure under the Bank Secrecy Act,” Zhao said. He described his first days in prison as “brutal.”
Zhao said he did not initially seek a pardon after his release. He only asked lawyers to submit a petition months later after media speculation linked his case to the Trump administration.
He described the pardon process as a “black box.” Zhao denied any direct lobbying or personal outreach to Trump or his family.
“There’s really no connection,” Zhao said. He added that he has never spoken with Trump and only saw him from the audience at a Davos event.
Government Advisory Work and Projects
Zhao said he is advising about a dozen governments on crypto regulation and asset tokenization. He told CNBC he spends considerable time talking with policymakers about how to regulate crypto and stablecoins.
At a World Economic Forum panel on Thursday, Zhao said he was in talks with roughly a dozen countries about tokenizing their assets. He did not mention specific nations or assets.
The goal is to enable countries to raise funds by offering small portions of state-owned assets to citizens or investors. This approach is similar to how some nations have sold stakes in national oil or telecom firms.
Zhao is working on several personal projects. He mentioned Giggle Academy, a free education platform, and YZi Labs, an investment firm.
He continues to mentor founders in the BNB Chain ecosystem. “We’re minority investors,” Zhao said. “I just mentor them.”
When asked what he would do differently, Zhao said he would have blocked U.S. users from Binance from day one. “If I had known what I know now, I would have just blocked U.S. users and avoided a lot of trouble,” he said.
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