TLDR
- Roblox reports Q4 2025 earnings Thursday after market close with revenue estimates at $2.08 billion, up 109% year-over-year
- Analysts expect a loss of $0.47 per share for Q4 versus $0.33 loss in the year-ago quarter
- RBLX stock has dropped 20% year-to-date and 11% over the past year due to slower bookings growth and heavy spending
- Canaccord analyst Jason Tilchen cut price target to $140 from $160 but maintained Buy rating citing strong user growth
- Options traders expect a 15.03% price move in either direction following the earnings report
Roblox reports its fourth quarter 2025 results on Thursday, February 5, after the market closes. The gaming platform faces investor scrutiny after shares tumbled 20% year-to-date.
Wall Street expects revenue of approximately $2.08 billion for the quarter. That represents 109% growth compared to the same period last year.
The consensus loss estimate stands at $0.47 per share. This compares to a loss of $0.33 per share in Q4 2024.
The stock has struggled recently. Shares are down 11% over the past twelve months.
Investors have grown concerned about slower bookings growth. Heavy spending on infrastructure and development has also weighed on sentiment.
Daily active users (DAUs) continue to climb steadily. Analysts project DAUs will reach 141.31 million for the quarter.
That would mark a jump from 85.30 million in the year-ago period. Total hours engaged are expected to hit 32.38 billion, up from 18.70 billion last year.
Analyst Activity and Price Targets
Canaccord analyst Jason Tilchen recently adjusted his outlook on the stock. He lowered his price target to $140 from $160 while keeping a Buy rating.
Tilchen pointed to improved user growth and engagement. Better AI search tools and popular games have helped drive these metrics.
However, the analyst noted management’s cautious 2026 comments. Concerns about new age verification requirements and higher infrastructure costs have kept pressure on shares.
Despite near-term headwinds, Tilchen expects user growth and revenue trends to stay strong. The analyst sees continued momentum in the platform’s core metrics.
Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF and ARK Next Generation Internet ETF bought 120,812 shares on January 3. The purchase was worth about $8.15 million.
The move signals confidence in the platform from a high-profile growth investor. ARK has maintained exposure to Roblox through market volatility.
What Options Traders See
Options activity suggests traders expect a big move after earnings. The at-the-money straddle indicates an anticipated swing of 15.03% in either direction.
This implied move is calculated using options closest to expiration after the announcement. It reflects market expectations for post-earnings volatility.
Bookings estimates stand at $2.07 billion for the quarter. That compares to $1.36 billion in the year-ago period.
Geographic breakdown shows expected growth across all regions. US and Canada DAUs are projected at 23.83 million versus 18.00 million last year.
Europe is expected to reach 33.33 million DAUs from 21.10 million. Asia-Pacific estimates come in at 44.26 million, up from 22.30 million.
Rest of world DAUs are forecast at 42.53 million compared to 23.80 million previously. The geographic expansion continues across all major markets.
Wall Street maintains a Moderate Buy consensus rating on the stock. The rating is based on 12 Buy ratings, seven Hold ratings, and one Sell rating assigned in the past three months.
The average price target sits at $118.26 per share. This implies potential upside of approximately 80.83% from current levels.
Analyst estimates have seen downward revisions recently. The consensus EPS estimate dropped 11.3% over the last 30 days.
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