TLDR
- Robinhood Markets (HOOD) stock has plunged 35% year-to-date and dropped 30% in five days due to Bitcoin’s sharp decline affecting crypto-related stocks.
- Wall Street expects Q4 earnings of $0.62-$0.63 per share with revenue growing 30% year-over-year to $1.32-$1.35 billion, though EPS is down from $1.01 last year.
- Analysts forecast strong growth across key metrics including net interest revenues up 46.1%, transaction-based revenues up 20.5%, and assets under custody doubling to $355.93 billion.
- Despite the recent selloff, Wall Street maintains a Strong Buy rating with 14 Buy ratings and analysts projecting over 100% upside from current levels.
- The earnings report scheduled for February 10 will focus on user growth stability, trading activity trends, and management’s outlook on crypto recovery and 2025 profitability.
Robinhood Markets stock has crashed to a new year-to-date low just days before the company reports fourth-quarter earnings on February 10. The timing couldn’t be more dramatic.
HOOD shares have dropped 35% so far this year. Over the past five days alone, the stock has fallen roughly 30% as Bitcoin’s sharp decline hammered crypto-related stocks across the market.
Wall Street analysts expect the company to report quarterly earnings of $0.62 to $0.63 per share. That represents a drop from $1.01 per share in the same quarter last year. Revenue is forecast to climb 30% year-over-year to between $1.32 billion and $1.35 billion.
The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 5% higher over the last 30 days. This shows analysts have become more optimistic about the quarter despite the stock’s terrible performance.
Breaking Down the Revenue Picture
Analysts are watching several key revenue streams closely. Net interest revenues are expected to reach $432.57 million, up 46.1% from last year. Transaction-based revenues should hit $809.88 million, representing 20.5% growth.
The crypto story is more complicated. Transaction-based revenues from cryptocurrencies are projected to fall 19.8% to $287.06 million. This matches the recent weakness in Bitcoin prices that triggered HOOD’s latest selloff.
Options trading looks strong. Analysts forecast options revenues will jump 42% to $315.34 million. Equities trading revenue is expected to climb 42.3% to $86.83 million.
Other bright spots include securities lending revenue, which is projected to more than double to $55.77 million. Margin interest revenue is forecast to jump 100.5% to $182.45 million.
User Growth and Assets Under Management
Funded customers are expected to reach 27.12 million, up from 25.20 million a year ago. That’s growth, but investors will want to see if the momentum is accelerating or slowing down.
Assets under custody are projected to nearly double to $355.93 billion from $192.90 billion last year. This metric shows how much money users are keeping on the platform, which is critical for future revenue growth.
The company delivered strong performance over the first nine months of 2025. Trading activity surged across stocks, options, and other assets as market volatility picked up. That tailwind may have cooled in Q4 as crypto weakened.
What Analysts Are Saying
Despite the brutal selloff, Wall Street remains bullish. HOOD carries a Strong Buy rating based on 14 Buy ratings and four Hold ratings assigned in the last three months.
Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani recently reiterated his Buy rating. He sees 120% upside potential and notes the stock is approaching an attractive valuation range. Chhugani warned that near-term volatility could create even better entry points.
Patrick Moley at Piper Sandler also maintains his Buy rating with over 100% upside. He calls Robinhood one of the best ways to play the long-term growth of retail trading.
The average price target sits at $154.93, implying 113% upside from current levels. That’s a massive gap between where the stock trades and where analysts think it should be.
What to Watch on Earnings Day
Investors will focus on whether user growth is stabilizing or improving after recent volatility. The company’s guidance for 2025 will be crucial, especially around trading demand and any potential crypto recovery.
Management’s commentary on new products and revenue diversification will matter. While crypto revenue may stay volatile, Robinhood has been building out subscriptions, net interest income, and other products to create more stable long-term growth.
The stock has cratered over the past month, falling 31.1% compared to a 0.5% gain for the S&P 500. That sharp underperformance has created what some analysts view as a more attractive margin of safety for new investors.
HOOD currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Robinhood reports Q4 earnings on February 10, and the stock’s next move will likely depend on what management says about the path forward.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
