TLDR
- Robinhood reports Q4 2025 earnings Tuesday February 10 after market close, with analysts expecting EPS of $0.63-$0.68 and revenue of $1.34-$1.35 billion, up 30-31% year-over-year
- HOOD stock fell 27% year-to-date and 28% in the past month despite gaining 47% over the past year, as falling cryptocurrency prices pressured shares
- Truist analyst David Smith lowered his price target to $130 from $155 but maintained Buy rating, noting crypto represents limited portion of overall revenue
- Options traders anticipate an 11.76% swing in either direction following earnings, while monthly active users remain steady at 26.8 million
- The company has beaten revenue estimates in eight of the last nine quarters, averaging 5.4% above Wall Street expectations over the past two years
Robinhood will report its fourth quarter 2025 earnings on Tuesday, February 10, after the market closes. The company faces investor scrutiny as recent cryptocurrency price declines have weighed on shares.
HOOD stock has experienced sharp volatility recently. Shares gained 47% over the past year but dropped 27% year-to-date. The stock fell 28% in the past month alone as concerns about crypto trading activity mounted.
Wall Street analysts expect the company to post earnings per share of $0.63 to $0.68 for the quarter. That represents a decline from $1.01 EPS reported in Q4 2024. Revenue is projected to reach $1.34 to $1.35 billion, reflecting 30-31% year-over-year growth.
The expected revenue slowdown comes as the company laps strong comparisons. Robinhood recorded 115% revenue growth in Q4 2024. This quarter’s projected 31% growth still represents healthy expansion but at a slower pace.
Analyst Weighs In on Crypto Impact
Truist Securities analyst David Smith adjusted his outlook ahead of earnings. He lowered his price target to $130 from $155 while keeping a Buy rating. Smith believes the recent selloff appears overdone.
The analyst pointed out that cryptocurrency represents only a limited portion of total revenue. He expects solid revenue growth and earnings even if crypto trading stays weak. Retail trading outside of crypto continues holding up well.
Monthly active users remained relatively steady in recent quarters at 26.8 million. That figure rose 10.3% year-over-year last quarter. The stable user engagement suggests platform strength beyond crypto trading.
Last quarter, Robinhood beat analyst revenue expectations by 6%. The company reported revenues of $1.27 billion, up 100% year-over-year. Funded customer numbers came in line with analyst estimates.
Strong Track Record of Beating Estimates
Robinhood has demonstrated consistent performance against Wall Street projections. The company missed earnings estimates only once in the previous nine quarters. Over the past two years, it exceeded revenue expectations by an average of 5.4%.
Analysts covering the company have generally reconfirmed their estimates over the last 30 days. This suggests they expect the business to maintain its current trajectory heading into the report. The consensus hasn’t shifted much despite recent stock volatility.
Options traders are pricing in substantial movement following the announcement. The expected earnings move stands at 11.76% in either direction based on at-the-money straddle pricing. This indicates traders anticipate a potentially large reaction to results.
Consumer internet stocks have struggled recently in the broader market environment. Share prices in the segment dropped 16% on average over the last month. Questions about tariffs and corporate tax adjustments have raised economic uncertainty concerns.
Peers in the consumer internet segment showed mixed results in their recent Q4 reports. Electronic Arts delivered 61.8% revenue growth, beating estimates by 29.4%, but shares fell 2.3%. Reddit reported 69.7% revenue growth, topping expectations by 8.7%, yet traded down 7.4%.
The current analyst consensus on HOOD stock is Strong Buy. Twelve analysts rate it Buy while two rate it Hold. The average price target sits at $147.77 to $150.73, implying upside of 76-82% from current levels around $83.92.
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