TLDR
- Intel stock fell 1.3% to $46.18 Tuesday on volume 52% below its average session, continuing a 7% slide over the past week.
- Q4 EPS beat estimates ($0.15 vs $0.08 expected), but revenue dropped 4.2% year-over-year to $13.67 billion.
- Foundry operations remain a drag — losses of $12 billion from 2021–2023 and yields of 55–65% vs. the 80–90% industry standard.
- Wall Street consensus sits at “Reduce” with an average price target of $45.74, below current trading levels; 26 analysts rate it Hold, 6 Sell, 5 Buy.
- Intel invested at least $100 million in AI software platform SambaNova and is targeting AI-driven PCs, but analysts want proof of execution before upgrading the stock.
Intel (INTC) stock slipped 1.3% to $46.18 on Tuesday, extending a rough stretch that has seen the stock drop around 7% over the past week. Volume was thin — about 63.2 million shares traded, roughly 52% below the average session.
The move lower comes as broader chip stocks showed weakness in early Tuesday trading, and Intel is carrying its own set of headwinds into the session.
The most recent quarterly results gave investors something to work with. Intel reported Q4 EPS of $0.15, beating the consensus estimate of $0.08. Revenue came in at $13.67 billion, also ahead of the $13.37 billion estimate.
But revenue was still down 4.2% compared to the same quarter a year ago. And Intel’s Q1 2026 guidance was conservative, with EPS guidance set at $0.00–$0.00, pointing to continued pressure in the near term.
The average analyst rating on Intel is “Reduce,” with a price target of $45.74 — technically below where the stock closed Monday at $46.79. The breakdown: five Buy ratings, twenty-six Hold ratings, and six Sell ratings.
DA Davidson recently initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and flagged a “show-me” reset, warning that current valuations already price in optimistic assumptions. Sanford C. Bernstein also reiterated a Neutral, waiting for clearer execution milestones before moving off the sidelines.
Foundry Struggles Remain the Core Problem
Intel’s foundry business is the most pressing issue. The division racked up $12 billion in losses between 2021 and 2023. Current production yields sit at 55–65%, well below the 80–90% industry standard.
CFO David Zinsner acknowledged on the earnings call that the company lacks capacity to meet current demand, citing “acute internal supply constraints.” That’s expected to weigh on sales and earnings in the months ahead.
Component costs are another factor. Intel is paying higher prices for memory chips and substrate wafers, squeezing margins at a time when it can least afford it.
AI Bets Are Taking Shape, But Slowly
Intel has been making moves on the AI front. The company invested at least $100 million in SambaNova, an AI software platform company, according to Wedbush. The investment is part of Intel’s broader push to build out its AI stack.
Intel also announced progress on its Saimemory project, introducing a new ZAM prototype aimed at AI-hardware development. Some investors are reading that as a sign the product roadmap is moving, even if slowly.
Management is targeting a world where roughly one in two PCs are AI-driven, which would expand the addressable market for Intel’s client CPUs and accelerator chips — if OEM design wins follow.
Institutional investors have been adding to positions. Vanguard raised its stake by 3.5% in Q4, and Capital World Investors lifted its position by 20.3%. Institutions now own 64.53% of INTC.
On the insider side, EVP April Miller sold 20,000 shares at $49.05 on February 2nd, reducing her position by 15%. EVP David Zinsner bought 5,882 shares at $42.50 on January 26th.
Intel’s 50-day moving average sits at $43.42, and its 200-day moving average is $36.12. The stock carries a market cap of $230.67 billion and a beta of 1.38.
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