TLDR
- Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 spiked to 90% before settling at 72%
- Senator Bernie Moreno said the bill could pass “hopefully by April”
- Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said negotiations have made “great progress” with only a few issues left
- The main sticking point is stablecoin yield/rewards provisions and SEC regulatory oversight
- A follow-up meeting between crypto execs and banks was expected around February 19
The odds of the US CLARITY Act passing jumped sharply on prediction markets this week after upbeat comments from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Senator Bernie Moreno.
Market structure is making great progress, and I believe we're going to reach a win-win-win outcome.
A win for the crypto industry.
A win for the banks.
And, most importantly, a win for the American consumer. pic.twitter.com/t0WM3XUZX4— Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) February 18, 2026
Polymarket traders pushed the probability of the bill passing in 2026 to 90% on Wednesday. It later pulled back to 72% at the time of publication.
Armstrong and Moreno both spoke to CNBC during an interview at President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago property in Florida. They were attending a World Liberty Financial crypto forum alongside banking and Congressional representatives.
Moreno said the goal is to get the bill passed “hopefully by April.” Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has also placed the odds at around 80% for an April passage.
Armstrong said negotiations have seen “great progress.” He noted that there are now only a few issues left to resolve before the bill can move forward.
Coinbase had previously pulled its support for the CLARITY Act in January. Armstrong said the bill’s ban on interest-bearing stablecoins and its positioning of the SEC as the primary crypto regulator were the main reasons.
The White House was reportedly unhappy with Coinbase’s withdrawal. Officials described the move as “unilateral” and said it blindsided the administration.
Stablecoin Yields Remain the Key Dispute
The central issue holding up the bill is whether stablecoins should be allowed to offer yields to holders. Banks have opposed this, arguing it would pull deposits away from traditional financial institutions.
Moreno acknowledged the bill got “hung up” on this issue. He said stablecoin rewards “shouldn’t be part of this equation.”
Armstrong framed the goal as a “win-win-win” for crypto, banks, and consumers. He said the Senate Banking Committee has been meeting daily to push the bill forward.
New Meetings Expected This Week
Another meeting between crypto executives and banks was expected around February 19, according to journalist Eleanor Terrett. She noted nothing had been confirmed at the time of her report.
Patrick Witt, executive director of the White House Crypto Council, said a meeting could happen as early as this week without giving a specific day.
The deadline for the banking and crypto industry to finalize terms is less than two weeks away from the time of publication.
Armstrong said the Senate has been working hard to close the gap. “They are meeting daily as far as I can tell to get this over the line,” he said.
The CLARITY Act is designed to give the US crypto industry a clearer regulatory framework. It has been one of the most closely watched pieces of crypto legislation in 2025 and into 2026.
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