TLDR
- Walmart reports Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings Thursday, Feb. 19, under new CEO John Furner
- Analysts expect EPS of 73 cents on revenue of ~$190.5 billion, up 5.2% year-over-year
- E-commerce sales grew 27% last quarter; advertising and membership revenue are expanding
- WMT trades at a P/E of ~43-45x forward earnings, above peers and most Magnificent Seven stocks
- Evercore ISI added WMT to its tactical underperform list, citing high expectations and stretched valuation
Walmart is set to report Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings Thursday morning, and the stakes are unusually high. It’s the first earnings report under new CEO John Furner, who took over from Doug McMillon less than a month ago.
Furner inherits a company trading near all-time highs, up about 14% year to date. Earlier this year, Walmart became the first traditional retailer to hit a trillion-dollar market cap.
Analysts expect adjusted EPS of 73 cents on revenue of roughly $190.5 billion, according to FactSet. That would represent earnings growth of 10.6% and revenue growth of 5.2% versus the same quarter last year.
U.S. same-store sales are projected to rise 4.3% year-over-year.
Walmart has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 0.8%, and Zacks models currently predict another beat, based on a positive Earnings ESP of +0.83% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Digital Growth in Focus
E-commerce has been a standout. Last quarter, global e-commerce sales rose 27%, driven by store-fulfilled pickup and delivery and marketplace growth. Walmart has been pushing toward greater fulfillment automation and a higher mix of third-party marketplace sales to improve digital margins.
Advertising revenue and Walmart+ membership income are also growing and carry higher margins than core grocery. These streams have become an increasingly important offset to cost pressures.
International operations in China, Mexico, and India also contributed last quarter, though currency fluctuations could affect year-over-year comparisons.
On the cost side, management has flagged tariff-related expenses, higher claims costs, and ongoing price investments as headwinds.
Valuation Leaves Little Room for Error
WMT currently trades at a forward P/E of around 43-45x, above the industry average of 41.22x and higher than most Magnificent Seven stocks outside of Tesla. Costco is the only major retail peer trading at a higher multiple, at 48.38x.
Kroger trades at 13.43x and Target at 14.86x, making Walmart’s premium valuation stand out in the sector.
That premium is what has some analysts cautious. Gregory Melich at Evercore ISI added WMT to his firm’s tactical underperform list ahead of the print, noting that sentiment is “largely positive” and the bar to deliver is high.
Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, called the stock’s valuation “extreme” and said Walmart “may need to exceed and guide far greater than expectations to continue its impressive run.”
Wall Street is projecting full-year fiscal 2027 EPS of $2.97, with sales growth of about 5%. Melich believes those estimates may already be too optimistic.
Deutsche Bank analyst Krisztina Katai framed the shift more constructively, writing that Walmart appears to be moving from building its digital and AI foundation into “acceleration mode.”
Beyond the numbers, investors are watching for Furner’s strategic priorities and any updated guidance on 2026. Walmart has a history of issuing conservative outlooks, and the CEO transition could make the company even more cautious than usual.
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