TLDR
- SOL wallet growth has risen for 5 months even as price has fallen, suggesting accumulation
- Short positions have surged, raising the possibility of a short squeeze
- Social dominance has dropped since September 2025, indicating low retail interest
- Analyst Crypto Patel predicted the sell-off near $250 and now warns SOL could drop to $30–$50
- Long-term, Patel projects SOL could reach $500–$1,000 after the correction completes
Solana (SOL) is trading near $85 as of mid-February 2026, under pressure from rising short positions, low social activity, and a bearish analyst outlook.
Despite the price drop, on-chain data from Santiment shows wallet growth has increased steadily over the past five months. New wallet addresses are still being created, suggesting that users continue to join the network even as the price falls.
This kind of activity during a price decline can point to early-stage accumulation, where buyers quietly build positions before sentiment shifts.
🤪 Has Solana lost its soul? From urgent validator patches, to extreme shorting and FUD, to still encouraging network growth in spite of the price drops, we break down what’s really happening with $SOL and whether a comeback may be closer than you think.https://t.co/CniUo9Gm1Y pic.twitter.com/CRbN5TbN3E
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) February 19, 2026
At the same time, funding rate data shows a sharp rise in short positions. When too many traders bet against an asset, it can set the stage for a short squeeze — a rapid price spike when those positions are forced to close.
Negative funding rates have triggered short squeezes in SOL’s past, causing sudden upward moves in price.
Social Activity Stays Low
Solana’s social dominance has fallen since its peak in September 2025. Mentions across Twitter/X, Reddit, and crypto forums remain low.
Historically, low social activity often appears near price bottoms rather than tops, as retail investors tend to lose interest after a prolonged decline.
The mix of rising wallet counts, crowded shorts, and quiet social media creates an unusual market setup.
Analyst Warns of More Downside
Crypto analyst Crypto Patel, who told traders to exit SOL between $200 and $250, says the conditions for another drop are forming.
Everyone Laughed When I Said Exit #Solana at $250 – That Laugh Cost Them -73%
Called the exit at $200-$250 when everyone was Dreaming $1000.$SOL dumped 77% from $295 to $67. Exactly as I warned.
Currently testing $85 at the 0.382 Fib level.
If this breaks, expecting $50-$30… https://t.co/dO6qkKzaoH pic.twitter.com/9LJu70I0Gr— Crypto Patel (@CryptoPatel) February 17, 2026
Solana peaked near $295 before falling roughly 77% to around $67. The price has since recovered slightly to the $85 zone, which sits at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
Patel says this level is weak given the pattern of lower highs since the peak. If SOL fails to hold $85, he expects a move into the $30–$50 range.
He calls this lower zone a Fair Value Gap accumulation area based on past volume and demand data.
Patel’s chart shows SOL surged over 3,699% in 2024 before its current correction. He projects the correction could reach 89.44% by mid-2026, similar to the 97% drawdown seen after the 2021 cycle.
Despite the near-term bearish view, Patel still holds long-term targets of $500–$1,000 for SOL, with a projected move to $9,270 by late 2029.
SOL is currently testing the $85 support level as of February 20, 2026.
