TLDR
- Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell sees ETH potentially bottoming between $1,360 and $1,770 based on historical realized price data
- In 2022, ETH bottomed 39% below realized price; in 2025, it bounced after a 21% drop below that level
- ETH hit a low of $1,747 on Binance, which may already represent the cycle bottom if the 2025 pattern repeats
- On-chain data shows ETH accumulation has reached multi-year highs, with whale inflows 30.7x above average
- U.S. buying pressure has not turned positive yet, which has historically been needed for a sustained ETH recovery
Ethereum is trading around $1,957 after dropping more than 1% in the last 24 hours. The second-largest cryptocurrency has been under pressure for weeks, but some analysts and on-chain data are pointing to signs of a potential floor.
Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, Sean Farrell, says ETH may be near or already at a cycle bottom. He pointed to a metric called the realized price — the average cost basis for on-chain holders — as a key reference point.
Farrell looked at two past cycles to project where ETH might find support. In 2022, ETH bottomed after falling 39% below its realized price. In early 2025, it bounced after dropping just 21% below that level.
If the 2022 pattern repeats, Farrell estimates a potential bottom at $1,367. If the 2025 pattern holds, then $1,770 is the key level — and ETH may have already hit that mark after touching $1,747 on Binance.
Farrell had previously predicted in December that BTC would fall to $60K and ETH to $1,800 in early 2026. That call proved accurate. He also forecast a potential market recovery in the second half of 2026.
He now expects an 80% rally over the next 12 months if ETH holds above $1,300.
Accumulation Reaches Historic Levels
Despite falling prices, on-chain data shows investors are buying ETH at a pace not seen in years. Crypto analyst Batman shared data on X showing ETH is in one of its strongest accumulation phases in recent history.
$ETH is seeing huge accumulation, despite the bear market we're currently witnessing.
The amount of Ethereum being accumulated is the strongest we have seen in years. pic.twitter.com/gg7IWhfzNb
— BATMAN ⚡ (@CryptosBatman) February 19, 2026
In a 24-hour window, over $490.9 million flowed into newly created wallet addresses — about 2.4 times the average. Whale wallets saw roughly $39.2 million in inflows, a 30.7x increase above average.
Top profit-and-loss wallets recorded $46.9 million in inflows, up 12.2x from average. Exchange wallets saw $56.9 million in outflows, which analysts typically read as a bullish signal.
According to CryptoQuant author CW, whales are quietly building ETH positions, with a focus on the futures market.
Ethereum accumulation is also outpacing Bitcoin among large holders. The gap in buying activity between the two assets suggests some capital rotation may be underway.
U.S. Buying Pressure Still Missing
Despite the accumulation activity, the Coinbase Premium Index remains negative. This index tracks whether U.S. investors are net buyers or sellers.
Historically, strong and lasting ETH price recoveries have come when U.S. buying turns positive. That has not happened yet.
Selling pressure from U.S. investors, including ETF-related flows, eased in early February but did not flip to net buying.
At the time of writing, ETH was trading at $1,957 with trading volume down more than 11% in 24 hours.
