TLDR
- UBS raised its Corning (GLW) price target to $160 from $125, maintaining a Buy rating
- The upgrade is driven by 30–50% capex revisions from major hyperscalers like Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft
- Corning signed a $6 billion “anchor agreement” with Meta, providing revenue visibility and funding for new factories
- UBS forecasts 21% compound annual sales growth and 30% EPS growth through 2028
- The emerging “Scale Up” fiber market — replacing copper inside server racks — could be 2–3x larger than the current “Scale Out” market
Corning (GLW) stock climbed 6.5% in midday trading on Friday after UBS made a strong move on its outlook for the company.
UBS analyst Joshua Spector raised his price target on GLW to $160 from $125 and kept his Buy rating in place.
The driving force behind the upgrade: hyperscalers are spending a lot more money, and Corning is in the middle of it.
Spector cited “30–50% revisions in capex spending by major hyperscalers” as the core reason for his updated estimates. Amazon alone recently guided for $200 billion in capex — about 33% above prior expectations.
UBS now sees hyperscale spending growing 68% year-over-year in 2026.
All of that spending means more data moving through more infrastructure — and more fiber optic cable to carry it.
The $6 Billion Meta Deal
Corning recently locked in a $6 billion agreement with Meta Platforms, described as an “anchor agreement.”
The deal is more than just a big revenue number. It gives Corning forward visibility into demand and brings in upfront cash the company can use to build new manufacturing capacity.
Spector said he expects similar deals with other hyperscalers, which could help Corning grow its market share further.
“These contracts are giving GLW visibility to longer-term demand growth, but also have the potential to bring in cash earlier to fund investments, in part de-risking investments in new capacity,” Spector wrote.
Scale Up: The Next Wave
Right now, fiber optic cables connect server racks to each other — a setup called “Scale Out.” Corning already plays here.
But the next opportunity is “Scale Up” — replacing copper wires inside individual server racks with fiber. That’s a newer, faster-growing market.
UBS estimates the Scale Up market could be two to three times larger than the current Scale Out market.
Demand from Scale Up is seen as just getting started, with elevated growth potentially running into the mid-2030s.
Spector now forecasts Corning’s Optical segment will account for 55% of the company’s net income by 2028, up from its current level.
He projects compound annual sales growth of 21% and adjusted EPS growth of 30% through 2028.
Despite the stock’s recent run, UBS applied a 33x next-twelve-months P/E multiple — a slight discount to optical peers — to arrive at the $160 target.
Spector also noted that 2028 likely won’t represent peak sales, with fiber demand expected to stay above historical growth rates well into the middle of the next decade.
He added there is potential for further estimate revisions following Nvidia’s upcoming update, saying he doesn’t expect the current round of hyperscaler capex raises to be the last.
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