TLDR
- DA Davidson initiated coverage of TSM with a Buy rating and a $450 price target on February 12, 2026.
- The four major AI hyperscalers — Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta — are set to spend around $650 billion on data center capex in 2026.
- TSMC is the dominant chip foundry, with clients including Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom.
- Management projects AI chip revenue to grow at nearly 60% CAGR between 2024 and 2029.
- TSM trades at 26x forward earnings, compared to the S&P 500’s 22x.
The four major AI hyperscalers — Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms — are on track to spend roughly $650 billion on data center capital expenditures in 2026. TSMC is positioned to collect a large slice of it.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, TSM
Here’s why: almost every advanced chip going into those data centers was made by TSMC.
Whether a hyperscaler is buying Nvidia GPUs or a custom-built chip from Broadcom, the odds are high it came out of a TSMC facility. That makes TSM one of the few true “picks and shovels” plays in AI — it wins no matter who builds the best model or sells the most hardware.
The chip foundry business is not easy to break into. Intel tried, and its foundry arm has struggled badly. Samsung has capabilities, but lacks the scale. That leaves TSMC largely on its own at the leading edge of chip manufacturing.
DA Davidson Initiates with Buy
On February 12, 2026, DA Davidson started coverage of TSM with a Buy rating and a $450 price target — roughly 21% above where the stock was trading on February 20 at $370.54.
The firm pointed to TSMC’s ability to turn new chip architectures into high-yield, high-volume manufacturing as the core of its competitive moat.
Competitors might match certain specs on paper, DA Davidson said, but TSMC’s real edge is execution at scale. That’s a moat that takes years to build and is hard to replicate.
TSMC’s own management is equally confident. The company projects AI chip revenue will grow at nearly 60% compound annual growth rate between 2024 and 2029.
That kind of sustained growth, over five years, underlines just how long the AI buildout could run.
Valuation Still Looks Reasonable
Despite all the momentum, TSM isn’t priced like a runaway hype stock.
The stock trades at around 26 times forward earnings. The S&P 500 sits at about 22 times. For a company with TSMC’s position in the AI supply chain, that’s not a stretched valuation.
The stock’s 52-week range runs from $134.25 to $380.00, and it carries a market cap of $1.9 trillion.
TSM also pays a dividend yield of 0.83% — a small but real bonus for a growth-oriented name.
The company’s gross margin stands at 59.02%, reflecting the pricing power that comes with being the dominant player at the leading edge.
TSMC is also building factories on U.S. soil, which further cements its long-term position and reduces geopolitical risk concerns that have weighed on the stock at times.
Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller counts TSM among his top 10 stock picks, according to recent portfolio disclosures.
DA Davidson’s $450 price target remains the most recent analyst call on the stock, issued February 12, 2026.
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