TLDR
- Bitcoin traded above $70,000 Friday, up roughly 7% for the week despite early volatility
- Global stocks recovered from a mid-week selloff, with S&P 500 futures rising to around 6,840
- Oil prices surged over 16% this week after Iran blocked tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
- U.S. Treasury yields rose for four straight days, with the 10-year climbing from 3.93% to 4.15%
- Fed rate cut expectations fell below 50-50 odds for two cuts this year, down from nearly 80%
Bitcoin held above $70,000 on Friday as global stocks steadied after a turbulent week driven by the expanding U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. But bond markets are telling a different story.
The week started with a sharp selloff across risk assets after Iran blocked oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply. That sent crude prices jumping more than 16% for the week, their biggest weekly gain since March 2022.
How high will inflation go?
According to a recent Fed study, every $10 rally in oil prices can increase inflation by ~20 bps.
Oil has already surged from $55 to $80 per barrel, implying +50 bps of inflation pressure.
This could push CPI from 2.4% to ~2.9%.
When oil prices… https://t.co/M4aEHSr32e pic.twitter.com/GL0IiBQdiB
— Adam Kobeissi (@TKL_Adam) March 5, 2026
Bitcoin dropped to around $65,000 over the weekend before recovering. It briefly hit $74,000 on Wednesday, then pulled back to $70,182 by Friday morning, still on track for a weekly gain of around 7%.
Equity markets followed a similar path. S&P 500 futures fell to a multi-week low of 6,718 on Tuesday before recovering to around 6,840. The Dow fell over 2% for the week and slipped into negative territory for 2026. The Nasdaq held up better, heading for a small weekly gain.
The U.S. moved to stabilize oil markets by promising naval escorts for tankers through the strait, which helped calm early fears. But energy prices stayed elevated.
Bond Yields Keep Climbing
The bigger concern for markets is what is happening in bonds. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose for four straight days, climbing from 3.93% to 4.15%. The two-year yield jumped from 3.37% to nearly 3.60%.
Rising yields reflect growing concern that higher oil prices will push inflation back up, leaving the Federal Reserve with less room to cut interest rates.
Before the conflict began, traders priced in nearly an 80% chance of two Fed rate cuts this year. That figure has now dropped below 50%.
Bryan Tan, a trader at Wintermute, said the rates market is “revealing the tension in this rally,” pointing to strong economic data alongside an inflationary energy shock as a combination that could keep the Fed on hold longer.
Recent U.S. data added to that picture. The ISM Services index came in at 56.1 in February, showing continued expansion. The ADP payrolls report showed 63,000 private sector jobs added, above the 50,000 expected and the strongest reading since July 2025.
Altcoins and Other Assets Also Under Pressure
Most major altcoins fell on Friday. Ethereum dropped 3% to $2,069. XRP fell 1.8% to $1.39. Solana slipped 1.6%, while Cardano and Polygon each declined 2.5%. Dogecoin also fell 1.8%.
Gold was on track for a weekly decline despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar.
Analyst Jack Prandelli noted that oil prices typically climb 20–30% within 60 days after a major geopolitical shock, suggesting markets may be underpricing the supply risk.
All eyes now turn to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Economists expect job growth of around 55,000, down from 130,000 in January. A stronger-than-expected number could push yields even higher.
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