TLDR
- Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, says he would not invest in Bitcoin right now and is waiting for the Fed to ease monetary policy
- Bitcoin is trading around $69,926, down 45% from its October all-time high of $126,000
- Hayes warns that ongoing US-Iran tensions could trigger a sell-off in both equities and crypto
- He says “money printing is good for Bitcoin,” not war itself — and will buy when central banks start printing again
- Hayes still holds a long-term $250,000 Bitcoin price target but sees near-term downside risk
Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, says he would not put a single dollar into Bitcoin right now. Speaking on the Coin Stories podcast with Natalie Brunell, Hayes said he is waiting for a clear signal from the US Federal Reserve before buying.
“If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes said.
Arthur Hayes, in an interview with CoinStories, stated that if he only had $1 to invest right now, he would not choose to buy Bitcoin. Instead, he would wait for the Federal Reserve to begin easing monetary policy and printing more money before entering the market. Hayes also…
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) March 11, 2026
Bitcoin is currently trading around $69,926. That is down 45% from its October all-time high of $126,000.
Hayes pointed to the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran as a key reason for his caution. He said the longer the conflict continues, the more likely the Fed will need to expand its balance sheet.
“The longer this conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print money to support the American war machine,” he said.
Hayes made a clear distinction between war and money printing. He said some people argue war is good for Bitcoin, but he disagrees with that framing.
“Money printing is good for Bitcoin,” he said. “That’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin — when the central banks start printing money.”
Downside Risk Still on the Table
Hayes also warned that Bitcoin could drop below $60,000 if macro conditions worsen. He said that could trigger a wave of forced selling.
Bitcoin briefly touched $60,000 on February 6 before moving slightly higher. Hayes said the current price still leaves room for further declines.
He said a prolonged risk-off environment in equities could drag Bitcoin down with it. A broad market sell-off, he argued, could cause cascading liquidations in crypto.
Other Analysts More Optimistic
Not everyone shares Hayes’ cautious view. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe recently pointed to a strong surge in the Nasdaq as a positive sign for Bitcoin.
Van de Poppe said there are “not many arguments left for uncertainty” and expects more upside for Bitcoin and altcoins in the near term.
Hayes does not rule out a recovery. He said he does not expect many more years where Bitcoin trades below $100,000.
His long-term target of $250,000 for Bitcoin remains in place. He has held that view publicly since at least late last year.
Hayes said his wait-and-see stance is driven entirely by the macro picture, not by any doubt about Bitcoin’s long-term value.
He added that the key factor to watch is when central banks shift from tightening to easing. That, he said, is when he will start buying again.
Bitcoin briefly touched the $60,000 level on February 6 before edging into a mild uptrend, and currently sits near $69,926.
