TLDR
- Eli Lilly plans to invest $3 billion in China over the next decade
- The investment will support production of orforglipron, its oral GLP-1 weight loss pill
- Lilly filed a marketing application for orforglipron with China’s drug regulator at end of 2025
- Bernstein reiterated an Outperform rating with a $1,300 price target; stock trades around $1,008
- New LillyConnect platform lets employers customize GLP-1 coverage for staff, partnering with GoodRx and Cost Plus Drugs
Eli Lilly ($LLY) announced Wednesday it will invest $3 billion in China over the next ten years. The move is aimed at building out production capacity for orforglipron, its once-daily oral pill targeting type-2 diabetes and obesity.
The company posted the announcement on WeChat, confirming it had already submitted a marketing application for orforglipron to China’s drug regulator at the end of 2025. That application is currently under review.
Orforglipron is a non-peptide GLP-1 agonist — meaning it works differently from Lilly’s existing injectable treatments like Zepbound. In a late-stage trial, overweight adults without diabetes lost an average of 12.4% of their body weight over 72 weeks at the highest dose.
A separate study showed orforglipron also helped patients maintain weight loss when switching over from Zepbound or Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy. That’s a useful data point as Lilly looks to grow the oral GLP-1 market.
As part of the China push, Lilly said it aims to build a local manufacturing and supply system for oral solid dosage forms. That would reduce reliance on imports and streamline distribution in the region.
The announcement puts Lilly in line with other Western healthcare firms expanding their China footprint, including Haleon and AstraZeneca, both of which announced similar moves earlier this year.
The timing is notable — it comes ahead of a planned summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping this month.
Not every major drugmaker is heading in the same direction. Bristol-Myers Squibb said in September it had agreed to sell its 60% stake in a Chinese pharmaceutical joint venture, including a Shanghai manufacturing facility.
Bernstein Holds Firm on $1,300 Target
Bernstein SocGen reiterated its Outperform rating and $1,300 price target on LLY stock this week, following recent updates around GLP-1 distribution in the U.S. The stock is currently trading around $1,008.
The firm highlighted CMS clarifications on the BALANCE model, which sets a $245 Medicaid pricing floor for obesity treatment starting May 2026, with Medicare expansion following in July 2026. The full program runs from January 2027 through 2031 — extending past the current presidential term.
Bernstein said the longer-than-expected timeline provides pricing certainty for Lilly until semaglutide’s patent expires in 2031.
LillyConnect and Prescription Data
Last week, Lilly launched LillyConnect, a new platform letting employers activate separate GLP-1 insurance coverage for employees. It has partnered with 15 program administrators, including GoodRx and Mark Cuban’s Cost Plus Drugs, plus two pharmacies: CentreWell and HealthDyne.
The platform allows employers to customize coverage and share costs, which could lower copays compared to cash-pay options.
Morgan Stanley, which holds an Overweight rating with a $1,313 target, pointed to the platform launch as a positive. Deutsche Bank also holds a Buy rating with a $1,285 target.
On the prescription side, Mounjaro logged around 724,500 total prescriptions for the week ending February 27, up from the prior week. Deutsche Bank flagged a 7% week-over-week rebound in GLP-1 prescriptions overall.
Morgan Stanley noted supply constraints had slowed Mounjaro sales in Brazil, but said a sharp rebound in February imports points to improving availability.
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