TLDR
- Clear Street upgraded CRCL from “hold” to “strong-buy” on Monday
- Baird raised its price target from $110 to $138, keeping an Outperform rating
- USDC outstanding is averaging $75.2B through March 15, up 6% since last earnings
- CRCL beat Q4 EPS estimates by $0.18, reporting $0.43 vs the $0.25 consensus
- Multiple insiders sold stock in recent weeks, including the President and two directors
Circle Internet Group got a boost on Monday as Wall Street analysts turned more positive on the stablecoin issuer, with an upgrade from Clear Street and a higher price target from Baird pushing the stock higher.
Clear Street lifted its rating on CRCL from “hold” to “strong-buy.” Separately, Baird raised its price target from $110 to $138 while keeping an Outperform rating on the stock.
Baird cited ramping stablecoin activity and improving crypto sentiment as reasons for the target increase. The firm also flagged that USDC outstanding is now averaging $75.2 billion through March 15 — a 6% rise since Circle’s last earnings report a few weeks ago.
That growth in USDC supply is directly tied to Circle’s revenue. The company earns yield on the reserves backing USDC, so a larger float means more income.
Baird also pointed to the Circle Payments Network and Arc Blockchain as paths to new revenue streams beyond the core USDC yield business.
Q4 Earnings Beat
Circle reported strong Q4 results on February 25. The company posted EPS of $0.43, beating the $0.25 consensus estimate by $0.18.
Revenue came in at $770.23 million for the quarter, up 76.9% year-over-year. That’s a hard number to argue with.
The stock opened Monday at $125.97. Its 50-day moving average is $78.24 and its 200-day moving average is $97.67, meaning the stock is trading well above both.
Circle has a market cap of $29.66 billion and a 52-week range of $49.90 to $298.99.
The consensus rating among analysts is currently “Hold,” with a consensus price target of $124.65. Two analysts rate it Strong Buy, eight say Buy, ten say Hold, and three have it at Sell.
Positive sentiment around the stock includes enterprise integrations with companies like Visa and Intuit, as well as expansion of the Circle Payments Network.
Analysts have noted that demand for USDC appears to be driven more by utility — payments, treasury operations, settlement — than by speculation. That supports a more durable revenue picture.
Insider Selling
On the other side of the ledger, insiders have been active sellers. Director Rajeev V. Date sold 23,254 shares on February 26 at an average price of $89.62, totaling roughly $2.08 million.
Director Patrick Sean Neville sold 30,000 shares on the same day at $90.00 per share, a transaction valued at $2.7 million.
More recently, Director M. Michele Burns sold 11,670 shares on March 12 at around $112.71. President Heath Tarbert sold 15,000 shares on March 13 at approximately $116 each.
Over the past three months, insiders have sold a combined 493,056 shares worth roughly $47.46 million in total.
There is also some regulatory scrutiny in play. Circle’s bank charter application and its USDC business model have come under closer examination, which analysts say investors should watch for updates on.
As of March 15, USDC outstanding stood at an average of $75.2 billion — the most recent data point on the health of Circle’s core stablecoin business.
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