TLDR
- FedEx reports Q3 FY26 earnings after market close on Thursday, March 19
- Wall Street expects EPS of $4.15, down from $4.51 a year ago; revenue forecast at $23.49 billion, up ~6% YoY
- FDX stock has pulled back from a YTD high of $390 in February to around $350
- Rising oil prices — Brent above $105, WTI crossing $100 — are pushing jet fuel costs up over 60% in a month
- Key KPIs to watch: Average Daily Package Volume and Average Daily Freight Pounds, both under pressure from trade headwinds and the loss of the USPS contract
FedEx stock has had a rough few weeks. After hitting a year-to-date high of $390 in February, FDX has slid back to around $350 heading into Thursday’s Q3 FY26 earnings report — its third-quarter results for the fiscal year ending May 2026.
The pullback isn’t random. Fuel costs are climbing fast. Brent crude has pushed past $105, and WTI crossed $100, driven by tensions in the Middle East. Jet fuel prices are up over 60% from a month ago. For a company that moves the world’s packages, that’s a real hit to margins.
Wall Street is expecting EPS of $4.15 — down from $4.51 in the same quarter last year. Revenue is forecast at $23.49 billion, which would be a 6% increase year-over-year. That’s modest growth, but growth nonetheless.
In Q2, FedEx actually delivered a solid set of numbers. Revenue came in at $23.5 billion, up 7%. Operating income rose 17% to over $1.6 billion. Operating margin improved 60 basis points to 6.9%, helped by the company’s ongoing cost-cutting efforts under its “Network 2.0” restructuring.
For Q3, analysts expect revenue of around $23.4 billion — a 5.94% YoY gain. Full-year revenue estimates sit at $92.75 billion, up 5.7%.
What to Watch: Package Volume and Freight Pounds
Two KPIs will be front and center Thursday: Average Daily Package Volume and Average Daily Freight Pounds.
Package volume tracks how many individual parcels move through FedEx’s Express and Ground networks each day. After a dip in Q2 2025, it showed some recovery, helped by stronger U.S. domestic performance and efficiency gains from Network 2.0. But global trade headwinds and the loss of a major contract remain a drag.
Freight pounds — the daily weight of freight moving through FedEx’s bulk shipping services — have been on a declining trend. The expiration of the USPS contract, weak industrial demand, and challenges tied to China trade have all weighed on this metric.
FedEx has been focused on cutting costs and optimizing its network in response to these pressures.
Energy Costs Take Center Stage
The jump in energy prices is the wildcard going into this report. Crude oil surging past $100 has pushed jet fuel costs sharply higher. FedEx flagged energy as its most unpredictable cost in recent communications.
Geopolitical tension — including U.S.-Israeli strikes and Iranian cargo ship attacks — raises the risk of broader supply chain disruption, according to analyst commentary.
Despite the near-term headwinds, FedEx laid out a longer-term roadmap: $98 billion in revenue by 2029, operating income above $8 billion, and adjusted free cash flow of over $6 billion.
On TipRanks, analysts hold a Moderate Buy consensus on FDX — 16 Buys, 6 Holds, 2 Sells — with an average price target of $384.70, implying about 8.5% upside from current levels.
FDX stock is down roughly 10% from its February high as of Tuesday’s close.
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