TLDR
- Citi downgraded Gemini Space Station (GEMI) to Sell, cutting its price target from $13 to $5.50
- GEMI stock fell 5.1% in premarket trading to $6.75 and is down 28% year-to-date
- Citi projects a $263 million adjusted EBITDA loss for 2025, with losses now expected through 2029
- Monthly app downloads dropped to 41,000 in February, down from over 100,000 in each of the prior nine months
- Gemini has already cut 25% of staff and pulled out of the UK, Europe, and Australia
Gemini Space Station went public at $28 a share last September. It’s now trading around $6.75. That’s a tough story, and on Wednesday it got tougher.
Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A Common Stock, GEMI
Citi analyst Peter Christiansen downgraded GEMI to Sell from Neutral and cut his price target to $5.50, down from $13. The call came in a research note on Wednesday, ahead of Gemini’s fiscal-year earnings report due Thursday after the closing bell.
The stock dropped 5.1% in premarket trading. It has now lost 28% since the start of the year.
The Winklevoss twins took Gemini public near the peak of the crypto market. Bitcoin was trading around all-time highs when GEMI debuted. Since October, Bitcoin has sold off roughly 40% from those levels, pulling trading volumes down across the industry.
That slowdown is hitting Gemini where it hurts. Lower trading volumes mean less revenue, and the company was already not making money.
Profitability Now Pushed to 2029
Citi previously expected Gemini to reach positive EBITDA by 2028. It has now pushed that out to 2029 at the earliest.
For 2025, Christiansen projects an adjusted EBITDA loss of $263 million. That’s a company burning through cash while trying to build out a platform in a tough market.
“We have increasing concerns the company will be challenged to scale profitability within a reasonable time frame for equity investors,” Christiansen wrote.
He also flagged that legislative progress on the CLARITY Act, which could help shape the regulatory environment for crypto platforms, remains stalled as key items continue to be debated.
Traffic and Downloads Are Falling
The user data tells a similar story. Monthly unique visitors to the Gemini app and website have trended lower since the IPO in September.
App downloads came in at just 41,000 in February. That compares to more than 100,000 per month across each of the nine months before that.
For a platform where network effects matter, that kind of decline is hard to reverse without a catalyst.
Gemini has been moving fast to cut costs. Last month, the company announced it would lay off around 25% of its workforce.
It also said it would wind down operations in the UK, Europe, and Australia. The COO, CFO, and Chief Legal Officer have all departed.
“We find ourselves stretched thin with a level of organizational and operational complexity that drives our cost structure up and slows us down,” the Winklevoss twins wrote in a blog post explaining the international exit.
The cuts are clearly aimed at buying time, but Citi isn’t convinced the runway is long enough.
Gemini is set to report its full fiscal-year results after Thursday’s closing bell. That report will be the next real data point for investors watching whether the company’s restructuring is gaining any traction.
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