TLDR
- The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.50%–3.75% in an 11-1 vote on March 18, 2026
- Bitcoin dropped nearly 4% to around $71,600 following the decision
- The Nasdaq and S&P 500 each fell 0.55% on the day
- The Fed raised its 2026 inflation forecast from 2.4% to 2.7%, citing Middle East uncertainty
- Markets see no chance of a rate cut at the April meeting, per CME data
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday, March 18, 2026. The decision was widely expected.
⚠️SUMMARY OF FED FOMC STATEMENT:
1. The Fed voted 11-1 to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, as expected.
2. FOMC member Stephen Miran voted for a 25bps cut.
3. The new ‘Dot-Plot’ continued to signal 1 rate cut in 2026 and 1 rate cut for 2027.
4. The FOMC statement said… pic.twitter.com/lspY1nGYyZ
— Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) March 18, 2026
The vote was 11-1. Stephen Miran was the lone dissenter, voting to cut rates by 25 basis points.
The Fed cited uncertainty around the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict as a key factor in its decision. Oil prices have climbed to nearly $100 per barrel, up from under $60 earlier this year.
“The implications of events in the Middle East for the US economy are uncertain in the near term,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said. “Higher energy prices will push up overall inflation, but it is too soon to know the scope and duration of the potential effects.”
Powell said economic activity has expanded at a solid pace. Consumer spending remains resilient and business investment continues to grow. But the housing sector is weak and the labor market is softening.
The Fed updated its inflation forecast for 2026 to 2.7%, up from its earlier estimate of 2.4%. Inflation is expected to fall back to 2.2% in 2027.
Markets React to Fed Decision and Iran War
Bitcoin fell sharply ahead of the announcement. It was trading at $71,600 after the decision — down nearly 4% on the day. The drop came after a rise in oil prices and weaker-than-expected inflation data earlier in the session.
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 each dropped 0.55%. The 10-year Treasury yield edged higher to 4.21%.
Lower interest rates typically support risk assets like Bitcoin and stocks by steering investment away from bonds. Higher rates tend to push capital into safer instruments.
The Fed’s so-called “dot plot” still shows just one 25-basis-point cut expected in 2026, and one more in 2027. There has been no change to that projection.
According to CME Group data, 97% of traders see no rate change at the April 2026 FOMC meeting. A small 3% expect a 25-basis-point hike, which would push the rate to 3.75%–4.00%.
What Analysts Are Watching
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said he is waiting for the Fed to cut rates before buying more Bitcoin. He also suggested the Iran war could push the Fed toward easing policy to help finance military spending.
Macroeconomist Lyn Alden said the Fed has entered a “gradual print” phase, where new money is being steadily created, slowly pushing up asset prices over time.
The Fed’s dual mandate — keeping prices stable while maximizing employment — is under pressure. Inflation remains above the 2% target while the job market shows signs of slowing.
Powell said the size and duration of the economic impact from the Middle East conflict remains unknown. The Fed will continue monitoring conditions before making any further policy moves.
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