TLDR
- JPMorgan said Bitcoin showed safe-haven-like demand during the war in Iran.
- Gold fell about 15% month-to-date as ETF outflows reached nearly $11 billion.
- Silver ETF flows reversed all inflows built since last summer, JPMorgan said.
- Bitcoin funds saw net inflows while futures positioning stayed relatively stable.
- JPMorgan cited rising crypto activity in Iran as capital moved to self-custody.
Bitcoin has drawn renewed attention from market analysts after JPMorgan said the asset has shown safe-haven-like demand during the Iran war, while gold and silver have weakened under outflows and position unwinds. The bank’s latest assessment adds to a wider market debate over whether Bitcoin is starting to trade more like a defensive asset during periods of geopolitical stress.
JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said gold has fallen about 15% month-to-date, while silver has also moved lower after both metals reached record highs earlier this year. The bank said rising U.S. rates, a firmer dollar, and profit-taking from crowded positions contributed to the decline. Over the same period, Bitcoin recorded net inflows and held firmer than traditional safe-haven assets on a relative basis.
The report comes as investors continue to react to the conflict between the United States and Iran, along with higher oil prices and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Bitcoin initially sold off with broader risk assets, but later stabilized in the high-$60,000 to low-$70,000 range. At the time referenced in the report, Bitcoin traded around $69,000, while gold stood near $4,450 per ounce and silver near $69 per ounce.
Gold and Silver Face Outflows While Bitcoin Holds Up
JPMorgan said gold exchange-traded funds recorded nearly $11 billion in outflows during the first three weeks of March. The bank also said silver ETF flows reversed the inflows that had built since last summer. In contrast, Bitcoin funds continued to record net inflows during the same period, pointing to firmer relative demand.
The bank’s futures positioning data also showed a divergence. Institutional exposure to gold and silver had increased through late 2025 and early 2026, but then dropped sharply from January as investors cut positions. Bitcoin futures positioning, by comparison, remained more stable in recent weeks.
JPMorgan added that momentum-driven investors appear to have accelerated the move in metals. Gold and silver signals shifted from overbought levels to below-neutral levels, the bank said, reflecting forced liquidations and broader profit-taking. Bitcoin momentum, however, improved from oversold territory toward neutral, indicating a more stable tone in recent trading.
Coinbase’s head of institutional strategy, John D’Agostino, has also pointed to Bitcoin’s recent resilience. In comments cited in separate market coverage, he said Bitcoin outperformed gold by about 25% and beat the S&P 500 by roughly 10% to 12% over recent weeks amid rising geopolitical stress.
Iran-Linked Crypto Activity Adds to Bitcoin’s Case
JPMorgan also pointed to rising crypto activity in Iran after the war began. Citing Chainalysis data, the bank said citizens moved funds from local exchanges to self-custody wallets and international platforms as pressure on the domestic financial system increased.
The analysts said Bitcoin’s borderless structure, self-custody features, and round-the-clock trading made it useful during periods of currency instability, capital controls, and geopolitical stress. That pattern has long been discussed in crypto markets, but the latest data provided by JPMorgan with a current example directly tied to wartime financial behavior.
Liquidity conditions also shifted across assets. Gold has typically shown stronger market breadth than both silver and Bitcoin, but JPMorgan said that relationship has recently changed. According to the bank, gold’s liquidity deteriorated to the point that its market breadth fell below Bitcoin’s, while silver’s liquidity declined even more sharply.
That change matters because thinner liquidity can intensify price moves when investors rush to exit crowded positions. In this case, the bank said weaker liquidity in gold and silver likely added to the speed of recent declines.
Bitcoin’s Safe-Haven Debate Moves Back Into Focus
Bitcoin’s recent performance does not fully place it in the same category as gold, since it still sold off during the conflict’s first shock phase. Even so, the rebound that followed has strengthened the view that it can recover faster once panic selling fades.
The combination of net inflows, firmer momentum, and stronger market breadth has given Bitcoin a profile distinct from that of precious metals during the Iran war. That has placed the asset back at the center of the safe-haven discussion, especially as traditional defensive trades lost momentum.
For now, traders remain focused on the same set of drivers: rates, the dollar, ETF flows, oil prices, and developments in the Middle East. As those factors continue to shape asset performance, JPMorgan’s view adds to evidence that Bitcoin is attracting more demand during periods of global stress.
