TLDR
- NVDA stock is down roughly 3% since the Iran conflict began on Feb. 27
- Jim Cramer says war impact on Nvidia is hard to quantify but fundamental demand remains strong
- Nvidia’s data center revenue target of $1T from Blackwell and Rubin GPUs may be conservative, per Wells Fargo
- Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers sees 15–20%+ upside to 2026–2027 data center estimates
- Cloud providers are set to deploy ~22GW and ~25GW of AI infrastructure in 2026 and 2027 respectively
Nvidia stock has slid around 3% since the war in Iran broke out on Feb. 27, and investors are trying to figure out how much of that is war-related — and how much isn’t.
CNBC’s Jim Cramer addressed this on “Mad Money” Thursday, walking through a checklist investors can use to evaluate Nvidia right now. His conclusion: the stock’s decline isn’t purely war-driven, and the fundamentals haven’t broken.
“Nvidia is a big part of the stock market itself and so it’s the easiest stock in the world to trade,” Cramer said. “I think it’s going down because it is so easy to get back in at a lower level.”
President Trump extended a pause on bombing Iranian energy facilities to April 6, adding more uncertainty to an already jumpy market. Cramer noted that timing the end of the conflict is near impossible.
Interest rates also factor in. Higher rates could slow the data center buildout by raising borrowing costs. But Cramer added: “If the war ends soon and we have a new Fed chief, you’ll feel like a moron for staying away from Nvidia.”
On the supply side, the tech industry is short on compute and memory, meaning demand for Nvidia chips is effectively being constrained by cost rather than a lack of desire.
“Everything you use Nvidia for is considered mission critical,” Cramer said, brushing off concerns about energy costs at data centers. Nvidia’s facilities run mostly on domestic natural gas, which has “barely budged.”
Cramer also flagged that Gulf sovereign capital has helped fund data center construction. There are questions about whether that financing could dry up. But after attending Nvidia’s GTC conference last week, Cramer came away saying demand looked “incredibly strong.”
His overall take: he’s not pounding the table, but if forced to choose, he’d rather buy a little early than miss the rally. “You’re ultimately being given a chance to buy a high quality stock at a lower price than you’d normally expect.”
Wells Fargo Sees More Upside Than Nvidia Itself Is Forecasting
Separately, Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers said Thursday that Nvidia’s own $1T data center revenue forecast — which covers its Blackwell and Rubin GPU lines through 2027 — could turn out to be too low.
Rakers, who has an Overweight rating and a $265 price target on NVDA, said he sees 15–20%+ upside to consensus 2026–2027 data center estimates.
The math behind his argument: the top five cloud providers are expected to deploy roughly 22 gigawatts of AI infrastructure in 2026 and 25 gigawatts in 2027. That level of deployment implies significantly more Nvidia revenue than current street models account for.
“From this, we present a pluggable model implying ~$120B+ of NVDA data center revenue upside for 2026–2027 vs. consensus estimates,” Rakers wrote.
How the $1T Pipeline Breaks Down
Of the $1T+ in disclosed Blackwell and Rubin pipeline, Wells Fargo estimates roughly $840B is expected to be delivered between 2026 and 2027. Through January 2026, approximately $150–$155B of that had already been recognised.
Rakers estimates Nvidia has deployed around 9 gigawatts of Blackwell infrastructure exiting its fiscal Q4 2026, with Blackwell GPUs accounting for roughly 65–70% of that. That works out to approximately $25B per gigawatt.
Rakers said he is not yet formally raising his estimates, but left the door open if deployment data continues to track above expectations.
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