TLDR
- Peter Brandt says Bitcoin will not hit a new all-time high in 2026, expecting one in Q2 2027 at the earliest
- BTC is currently trading around $66,000–$67,000, down roughly 47% from its $126,100 all-time high
- Brandt warns BTC could retest $60,000 or go slightly lower in September or October 2026
- Polymarket traders give only a 15% chance Bitcoin reclaims $120,000 in 2026
- Analyst Ted warns a repeat of a recent price pattern could push BTC down to $45,000
Bitcoin is trading around $66,000–$67,000 at the time of writing, down roughly 47% from its all-time high of $126,100 set in October 2025.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has shared a cautious outlook for Bitcoin in 2026. He told Cointelegraph: “I do not see a new price high in 2026. Not until maybe the second quarter of 2027.” He added that “this is all guesswork.”
Bitcoin hit a yearly low of $60,000 on February 6, 2026. Brandt believes that level may not hold as the floor for the year.
He projects that BTC could retest $60,000 — or even dip slightly below it — in September or October 2026. He described this as the potential “bear cycle low,” after which a new bull cycle could begin.
Brandt also noted his broader view on Bitcoin has not changed. He called BTC “a store of wealth” and said he remains neutral or bearish on all other cryptocurrencies.
What Other Analysts Are Saying
Prediction market Polymarket currently gives just a 15% chance that Bitcoin will reclaim $120,000 in 2026.
Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of SkyBridge, also holds a bearish near-term view. He pointed to the four-year market cycle: “We’re in a four-year cycle, and there were some traditional whales, some OG’s, that believe in the four-year cycle, and guess what happens in life when you believe in something? You create a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
Fundamentals continue their local strength which opens the door to mid-80s, which is the cost basis of short term holders.
Futures markets have been powering this move, these are shorter term buyers. This type of liquidity has draw backs, including whipsaw price movements to… https://t.co/rY28MVjwdm
— Willy Woo (@willywoo) March 17, 2026
Analyst Willy Woo posted on X on March 17 that Bitcoin is about one-third of the way through the bear market from a liquidity perspective.
Analyst Ted says BTC has “lost its uptrend.” He noted the current price pattern looks similar to what played out in January 2026, when BTC fell about 39% from its local high. If that pattern repeats, BTC could fall to around $45,000.
ETF Flows and Market Sentiment
Spot Bitcoin ETFs ended a four-week inflow streak last week, posting $296.18 million in net outflows for the week ending Friday.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has been sitting in “extreme fear” since March 20, posting a score of 8 on Monday.
Not all analysts are bearish. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said in January that he still expects Bitcoin to set a new all-time high in 2026.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $296.18 million in net outflows for the most recent weekly period, ending a four-week run of inflows.
