TLDR
- AppLovin stock was up 2.21% in premarket trading Wednesday at $406.80, recovering slightly after falling 40.93% year to date.
- A broader tech rally, driven by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, helped lift sentiment across the sector.
- Evercore ISI conducted 10 channel checks with user acquisition operators and found the stock’s decline is “out of step” with company fundamentals.
- 8 out of 10 contacts said they expect AppLovin to grow its share of their user acquisition budget over the next 6 to 12 months.
- APP sits technically weak — trading 26.9% below its 100-day moving average, with RSI at 40.80 and MACD in negative territory.
AppLovin stock edged higher in premarket trading Wednesday, gaining 2.21% to $406.80 after a rough stretch that has pushed the stock down nearly 41% since the start of the year.
The move came as broader tech markets picked up, with Nasdaq futures rising 1.10% early Wednesday and S&P 500 futures up 0.80%. Investor mood improved on signs that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may be easing.
President Donald Trump said the U.S. could wrap up its military campaign in the region “within two or three weeks.” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also signaled openness to ending hostilities, pending security guarantees. The White House confirmed Trump will address the nation at 9:00 p.m. ET Wednesday.
On the rates front, markets showed little drama. The CME FedWatch tool put the odds at 99.5% that the Fed keeps rates on hold in April. Economist Jeremy Siegel urged investors to stay defensive until energy markets settle.
Evercore Channel Checks Tell a Different Story
Despite the stock’s bruising drop, Evercore ISI analyst Robert Coolbrith said the selloff looks overdone based on what he’s hearing from the ground.
Between March 18 and March 30, Evercore ran 10 detailed interviews with user acquisition operators — decision makers from game publishers, developers, and games-focused agencies across North America, Europe, and MENA. Together, those contacts manage around $1.9 billion in annualized user acquisition spend.
Eight of the 10 contacts said they expect AppLovin to expand its share of their UA budget over the next 6 to 12 months. Three of those eight put the expected wallet share gain at 3 to 5 percentage points. Two additional contacts said AppLovin’s share of their budget should already be 10 to 15 points higher if they went purely by return on advertiser spend.
Several contacts pointed to product changes late in Q4 as a net positive. One flagged a tweak to retargeting windows, while three others cited “creative clustering” as a meaningful win.
Product Changes Still Driving Budget Allocation
Earlier 2025 product changes are also still moving budgets. Five of the 10 contacts said a shift in campaign objective from CPI to CPM has improved budget fulfillment and campaign scalability. Four noted the move to D28 optimization from D7 as a continued tailwind. Two of those contacts said they’re looking for AppLovin to push the optimization window further out to D60.
Coolbrith kept his Outperform rating and $750 price target on the stock.
Technical Picture Remains Weak
Technically, APP has work to do. The stock is 11.2% below its 20-day moving average and 26.9% below its 100-day moving average. The RSI sits at 40.80 — neutral but leaning weaker. MACD is at -19.09 and remains below its signal line.
APP’s 52-week range runs from $200.50 to $745.61. Key resistance is at $473.50, with support at $366.50. The stock is up 40.79% over the past 12 months despite the year-to-date decline.
Coolbrith’s $750 price target represents an 84% premium to Wednesday’s premarket price.
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