TLDR
- Goldman Sachs warns of real oil shortage risk as the last tankers from before the conflict reach their destinations
- Asian oil imports dropped by 9 million barrels per day by end of March
- Diesel and refined fuel prices have surged up to 150% due to supply competition
- The Philippines declared a national fuel emergency; Australia is seeing stations run dry
- WTI crude surged 11.4% to $111.54 per barrel after Trump pledged to escalate the conflict
The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil transit point. Goldman Sachs is now warning that oil shortages are becoming a real risk for multiple countries.
Before the conflict started, roughly 138 vessels passed through the strait every day. That number has dropped by over 90%, with daily crossings often falling to single digits. The strait normally carries about 20 million barrels of oil per day, which is around 20% of global seaborne supply.
Goldman Sachs strategist Daan Struyven said in a new note that the last tankers to cross before the war began are now reaching their destinations. That means the supply cushion built up before the conflict is running out.
The bank’s research team looked at the problem three ways: product supplies, price responses, and real-world examples on the ground.
Asia Feeling the Strain First
Asian oil imports fell by a net 9 million barrels per day by the end of March. Petrochemical feedstocks like naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas were already running low before the war began, making the situation worse.
It took until the end of March for the supply drop to actually be felt, due to how long oil tanker trips take. Some countries, like Japan, have been able to draw on domestic reserves to soften the blow.
On prices, refined products like diesel have seen surges of up to 150%. Part of that is driven by wealthier nations competing to buy up supplies, including jet fuel.
The Philippines has declared a national fuel emergency. South Korea has restricted public-sector vehicle use. Australia has seen many fuel stations run out of gasoline.
Trump Escalates, Markets React
Oil prices have swung sharply during the conflict. After briefly dipping below $100 per barrel in late March on hopes of a ceasefire, prices spiked again after President Trump’s address on April 1. He pledged to hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks.
WTI crude surged 11.4% to $111.54 per barrel on April 2. Brent crude reached $109.03 per barrel.
Over the weekend, Trump posted on Truth Social warning Iran to open the strait or face attacks on power plants and bridges. He set a Tuesday-night deadline for Iran to agree to terms.
What Analysts Are Saying
Ben Emons of Fed Watch Advisors said that oil flow through the strait matters more to markets than oil production capacity. He compared a potential reopening to pandemic-era economic reopening, calling it a form of stimulus for global markets.
Goldman’s note stopped short of giving a hard timeline for when shortages become critical. Iraq said it has received permission from Iran to have its oil tankers transit the strait, which could offer some relief.
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