TLDR
- UnitedHealth (UNH) reports Q1 earnings on April 21, 2026
- Wall Street expects EPS of $6.69, down 8% year-over-year, on revenue of $109.58 billion
- Raymond James upgraded UNH to Outperform with a $330 price target
- The stock rose ~1.2% following the upgrade
- Options markets are pricing in a ~9% move in either direction post-earnings
UnitedHealth Group is set to report first-quarter results on April 21, with Wall Street watching closely after a rough start to the year.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, UNH
The stock has dropped nearly 17% in 2026, pressured by weaker guidance and ongoing strain in its Medicare Advantage business. That decline has pushed the stock below the price Berkshire Hathaway paid for its stake, sparking debate among investors about whether it’s a buying opportunity.
Analysts expect adjusted EPS of $6.69 for Q1, down 8% from the same period last year. Revenue is forecast at $109.58 billion, roughly flat year-over-year.
Options traders are pricing in a move of around 9% in either direction following the report — a sign that uncertainty is elevated heading into earnings.
Raymond James upgraded UNH to Outperform from Market Perform on April 1, setting a $330 price target. Analyst John Ransom argued that Wall Street is underestimating the company’s earnings power, particularly around cost savings.
The upgrade sent the stock up about 1.2% intraday on April 2, trading as high as $279.04 before settling at $277.30.
Ransom pointed to general and administrative efficiency as a key driver. He estimated every 100-basis-point improvement in G&A would add roughly $3.80 per share to earnings.
Optum Health in Focus
Visibility into Optum Health margins has also improved, according to Raymond James. While margins may look flat this year, the firm sees the underlying trend as positive as UnitedHealth exits underperforming operations.
The company has already closed or sold several unprofitable clinics. That cleanup is expected to reduce margin drag going forward.
Optum’s non-capitation business, which generates around $33 billion in revenue, currently runs on single-digit margins. Analysts see meaningful upside there with better execution.
The broader Wall Street picture on UNH remains constructive. Based on TipRanks data from April 1, the stock holds a “Strong Buy” consensus from 17 Buy ratings, 3 Holds, and zero Sells.
The average 12-month price target sits at $366.47, implying roughly 35% upside from recent levels. The most bullish analyst sees UNH reaching $440, while the most cautious has a $311 target.
Risks Remain
Not everyone is fully convinced. Leerink flagged exposure to RADV audits — Medicare Advantage reimbursement reviews — as a material headwind.
A pending Ninth Circuit ruling on UnitedHealth’s preemption defense could also expand legal liability if the decision goes against the company.
Institutional ownership remains high at roughly 87.9% of the float. Notable holders include Norges Bank, Capital Research Global Investors, Berkshire Hathaway, and Dodge & Cox, which doubled its position last year.
Despite the year-to-date decline, UNH recently entered the top 10 holdings of the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF. The company pays an annualized dividend of $8.84 per share, yielding around 3.2%.
The last quarterly earnings beat was narrow — $2.11 EPS versus the $2.09 consensus — on revenue of $113.73 billion, up 12.3% year-over-year.
Q1 results are due before market open on April 21.
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