TLDR
- Bernstein reaffirmed a Buy rating on NVDA with a $300 price target, calling the upcoming Vera Rubin platform “a monster”
- Vera Rubin is set to ship in H2 2026, delivering 5x more inference performance and 3.5x more training performance than current models
- NVDA stock ticked up 0.5% on Friday; the stock opened at $199.88 with a market cap of $4.86 trillion
- Q4 results beat estimates — EPS of $1.62 vs $1.54 expected; revenue of $68.13B vs $65.56B expected, up 73.2% year-over-year
- Wall Street consensus sits at Strong Buy — 4 Strong Buy, 48 Buy, 2 Hold — with an average price target of $275.25
Bernstein analyst David Dai kept his Buy rating on Nvidia (NVDA) on Friday, setting a $300 price target and pointing to the company’s upcoming Vera Rubin chip platform as the next big leap in AI hardware.
The stock ticked up 0.5% in early trading following the note.
Dai described Vera Rubin as “a monster,” saying it will deliver 5x more inference performance and 3.5x more training performance compared to current chips. What makes those numbers stand out is that the gains come with only 1.6x more transistors — meaning Nvidia’s engineers are squeezing far more out of each chip generation.
Vera Rubin is on track to begin shipping in the second half of 2026.
NVDA opened at $199.88 on Friday. The stock has a 52-week range of $95.04 to $212.19 and sits well above both its 50-day moving average of $183.04 and its 200-day moving average of $184.87. It recently posted a golden cross — a technical signal where the 50-day moves above the 200-day — which tends to attract momentum traders.
Valuation and Earnings Picture
Despite the stock’s run, Bernstein argues the valuation still looks cheap relative to growth.
The firm pointed to a PEG ratio of 0.77, well below the sector average. At roughly 15x projected 2027 earnings — versus a sector average of around 20x — Dai said the stock “appears very attractive.”
The path to that valuation runs through a $12-plus calendar year 2027 EPS estimate, which Bernstein now calls “very plausible.” The firm’s implied revenue forecast of ~$500 billion for 2027 already exceeds the Street consensus of ~$438 billion.
Nvidia’s last quarterly report backed that confidence. The company posted Q4 EPS of $1.62, beating the $1.54 consensus by $0.08. Revenue came in at $68.13 billion against expectations of $65.56 billion — a 73.2% jump year-over-year. Net margin was 55.6% and return on equity hit 97.37%.
Demand and Institutional Positioning
Bernstein’s note was direct about the demand picture: “zero signs of slowing.”
Orders already stretch into 2027, underpinned by supply commitments from major cloud providers. The strong GB300 ramp heading into the Vera Rubin launch leads Bernstein to expect 2026 to be “a very good year” for the company.
Institutional investors hold roughly 65.3% of NVDA. Several funds added to their positions in Q4, including Brighton Jones LLC (+12.4%) and Hudson Value Partners LLC (+30.7%).
On the insider side, CFO Colette Kress sold 42,650 shares at an average of $174.89 on March 20th, a 4.62% reduction in her holding. Director Aarti S. Shah sold 19,000 shares at $176.71, cutting her stake by 34.54%. Total insider sales over the past 90 days came to around $207 million.
The Wall Street consensus across all analysts stands at Strong Buy — 4 Strong Buy, 48 Buy, 2 Hold — with an average price target of $275.25, implying roughly 38% upside from current levels.
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