TLDR
- Wall Street expects a loss of 68 cents per share on $21.3 billion in revenue for Q1 2026
- Boeing delivered 143 commercial planes in Q1, up from 130 a year ago — out-delivering Airbus for the first time since ~2019
- Free cash flow is expected to be negative $2.61 billion, but Boeing has guided for positive free cash flow of $1–$3 billion for full-year 2026
- BA stock was down roughly 10% since its Q1 earnings report and about 2% since fighting began in Iran
- GE Aerospace, RTX, and Northrop Grumman all fell between 4–7% on Tuesday despite beating estimates, raising concerns about the aerospace sector
Boeing reports Q1 2026 earnings Wednesday morning, and the bar is simple: show progress. Not perfection, just progress.
Wall Street is expecting a loss of 68 cents per share on revenue of $21.3 billion, according to FactSet. That compares to a 49-cent loss on $19.5 billion in revenue a year ago. Sales are higher, losses are narrower — the trend is moving in the right direction.
The headline numbers matter, but right now the metrics investors care most about are deliveries, cash burn, and whether CEO Kelly Ortberg’s turnaround plan is actually working.
Boeing delivered 143 commercial aircraft in Q1, up from 130 in the same period last year. The 737 MAX accounted for 114 of those — about 80% of total output. Widebody deliveries came in at 29 jets, including 15 787 Dreamliners, eight 777s, and six 767s.
Boeing also out-delivered Airbus for the first time since around 2019, besting the European rival’s 114 deliveries. That’s a number Ortberg will likely highlight on the earnings call.
The company has confirmed a sustained 737 MAX production rate of 38 aircraft per month as of late March. A fourth 737 assembly line is expected to open at Boeing’s Renton, Washington plant this summer, which could push narrowbody output toward 53 aircraft per month by year-end.
Boeing is expected to post negative free cash flow of around $2.61 billion for the quarter. That’s not great, but it’s not a surprise either. The company has guided for positive free cash flow of $1–$3 billion for the full year 2026.
In January, Boeing reported a record backlog of $682 billion, covering more than 6,100 commercial aircraft. Demand for planes remains strong.
Certification Milestones in Focus
One thing analysts are watching closely is the certification timeline for the 737 MAX -7 and -10 variants. RBC analyst Ken Herbert called the -10 “very important” for Boeing’s margin profile, noting it carries strong pricing and could be key to margins turning positive in 2027.
Any updates from aviation regulators on those approvals will be closely watched.
Aerospace Sector Under Pressure
Tuesday was rough for the wider aerospace sector. GE Aerospace fell 5.6%, RTX dropped 4.4%, and Northrop Grumman slid nearly 7% — all after posting better-than-expected results. Vertical Research Partners analyst Rob Stallard called it a “bloodbath.”
The culprit? Concerns that the war in the Middle East is weighing more on air travel demand than the market had priced in. Stallard estimated that continued flight schedule reductions in the region could shave about 3% off global traffic growth this year.
Boeing has its own internal issues that could affect near-term delivery timing. The war could push some deliveries to the back half of the year.
Both Boeing and Airbus have faced manufacturing issues this year — 737 wiring problems and A320 fuselage panel issues respectively — though analysts expect the supply chain to stabilize with steady incremental progress.
Boeing is expected to deliver around 660 planes in all of 2026, up from 600 in 2025.
BA stock closed at $219.16 on Tuesday, down 2.63% on the day.
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