TLDR
- Tesla stock rose 2.7% in April, its first positive month of 2026, but remains down 15% year to date
- The stock trades at ~180x forward earnings, a valuation built on AI expectations that have been slow to materialise
- Robo-taxi service has expanded to Dallas, Houston, and San Francisco, but falls well short of Musk’s goal of dozens of cities
- Tesla plans to spend $25 billion on capex in 2026, up from under $9 billion in 2025, with Wall Street projecting $9 billion in cash burn
- European registrations rebounded sharply in April, with France up 112% and Denmark up 102%
Tesla stock was trading at $386.69 on Friday, up around 1.2% on the day, as investors digested a mixed picture of slow AI progress and a modest European sales recovery.
The gain follows a 2.7% rise in April — Tesla’s first positive month of 2026. Before that, the stock had fallen in 13 of the past 17 weeks. It is still down 15% year to date.
The valuation tells the real story. Tesla trades at roughly 180 times expected earnings over the next 12 months. That number only makes sense if you believe the AI roadmap delivers. So far in 2026, it hasn’t.
Tesla launched its robo-taxi service in Austin, Texas last June with a small number of vehicles and human safety monitors in the passenger seat. It has since expanded to San Francisco, Dallas, and Houston.
That sounds like progress, but CEO Elon Musk’s stated goal is dozens of cities covering half the U.S. population. By that measure, Tesla is still well behind schedule.
Optimus Stays Under Wraps
On the robotics side, Tesla chose not to showcase the latest version of its Optimus humanoid robot during Q1, citing competitive concerns. That decision frustrated investors who are looking for any concrete sign of progress.
Musk has called robots the largest product in human history. With no public update on the latest generation, it is hard to know where that product actually stands.
The spending plans add another layer of concern. Tesla is targeting $25 billion in capital expenditure for 2026, up from under $9 billion in 2025. Wall Street expects the company to burn through around $9 billion in cash this year, compared to $6 billion in free cash flow it generated in 2025.
That is a sharp reversal, and investors are being asked to fund an AI transformation with limited visibility into when it pays off.
Europe Offers Some Relief
Not everything in the report is downbeat. Tesla’s European numbers showed a real bounce in April.
Registrations rose 112% in France, 102% in Denmark, and 23% in the Netherlands. For the first quarter overall, European sales were up nearly 45%.
That recovery follows two straight years of declining European sales, including a 27% drop in 2025.
Higher fuel prices linked to the Iran conflict appear to be lifting electric vehicle demand across the continent. Tesla also received regulatory approval in the Netherlands for its driver-assistance software, with the Dutch authority notifying the European Commission of plans to seek EU-wide clearance.
The competitive backdrop remains tough. BYD and other Chinese automakers continue to gain market share in Europe. Tesla’s lineup is also showing its age — the last mass-market model it launched was the Model Y in 2020.
Tesla’s most recent trading price on Friday was $386.69, up approximately 1.2% on the session.
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