TLDR
- Peter Brandt expects Bitcoin to reach $250,000 in late 2029 after a projected bottom in 2026.
- He links his forecast to Bitcoin’s historical four-year mining reward halving cycle.
- Brandt says the market could form a low around September or October 2026.
- He states that prices may move sideways or lower without breaking the February low.
- Brandt says he will revise his outlook if price action diverges from historical patterns.
Peter Brandt projects Bitcoin will reach $250,000 in 2029 after a prolonged bottoming phase. He expects the market to form a low around September or October 2026. However, he ties his outlook strictly to Bitcoin’s historical four-year halving cycle.
Bitcoin Price Outlook Tied to Halving Cycle Pattern
Brandt bases his forecast on Bitcoin’s established four-year mining reward halving cycle. He said the market typically peaks 16 to 18 months after each halving event.
He noted that Bitcoin peaked in October 2025 near $126,000. That high came roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving. The halving reduced block rewards to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC.
Brandt said bear markets usually last about one year after such peaks. Therefore, he expects the current downturn to bottom around October 2026. He stressed that the cycle must remain intact for this outlook to hold.
He told CoinDesk, “I am not calling for a low until Sep/Oct 2026.” He added that prices do not need to break the recent February low. He explained that the market could rally and then move sideways or drift lower.
He warned that the worst case could push Bitcoin price back into the $50,000 range. He said prices could even touch the high $40,000 area. After that, he expects a sharp move toward $250,000 by late 2029.
Veteran Trader Contrasts Consensus on Bitcoin Price Trend
Brandt’s outlook differs from that of several crypto analysts. Many analysts argue the downtrend ended in early February near $60,000.
They point to Bitcoin’s recovery of more than 25% since early February. CoinDesk data shows Bitcoin trading around $80,300 after that rebound.
Brandt, however, does not confirm a new bull market. Instead, he expects a choppy structure before a confirmed bottom later this year. He said the recent low does not need to be retested for the cycle to remain valid.
He stated, “As long as the market follows the script, I will stay with my projections.” He also said he will revise his view if price action diverges from historical behavior. He stressed that he will not defend a broken thesis.
Brandt built his career in the 1970s trading futures markets. He traded agricultural commodities, metals, and currencies before digital assets emerged.
He has followed structured chart patterns for decades. Therefore, he frames his Bitcoin outlook within long-term technical cycles.
Bitcoin currently trades near $78,774.52, according to market data. The asset remains below its October 2025 peak of about $126,000. Brandt maintains his $250,000 target for late 2029, contingent on the cycle holding.
