TLDR
- J.P. Morgan kept AT&T on its top picks list, citing fiber and 5G investments and competitive cost advantages
- AT&T beat Q1 estimates with $0.57 EPS vs $0.55 expected, on revenue of $31.51 billion
- 45% of advanced home internet customers also use AT&T wireless, up 3 percentage points year-over-year
- J.P. Morgan analyst raised 2026 EBITDA estimate to $48.1 billion and kept a $33 price target
- AT&T stock is up about 5% year-to-date; dividend yield sits at approximately 4.2%
AT&T (T) stock opened at $26.15 on Monday, up roughly 5% for the year through Friday’s close. The stock has broadly tracked the S&P 500, which is up 5.8% over the same period.
J.P. Morgan kept AT&T on its top picks list Monday, with analyst Sebastiano Petti pointing to the company’s fiber and 5G build-out and its cost position versus rivals T-Mobile and Verizon as key reasons.
“We believe AT&T’s asset mix, strengthened by years of investment in fiber and 5G, and its marginal cost relative to competitors, positions the company well to drive share gains,” Petti wrote.
AT&T reported first-quarter earnings on April 22nd. The company posted EPS of $0.57, ahead of the $0.55 analyst consensus. Revenue came in at $31.51 billion, above the $31.29 billion estimate and up 2.9% year-over-year.
For the full year 2026, AT&T guided for EPS of $2.25 to $2.35. The analyst consensus sits at $2.31.
One number that caught Petti’s eye: 45% of AT&T’s advanced home internet customers also subscribe to AT&T wireless. That’s up three percentage points from a year ago and excludes new fiber customers added through the Lumen acquisition.
Petti views this as a sign that AT&T’s convergence strategy is working — bundling 5G, fiber, and Wi-Fi into a single offering to lock in customers.
EBITDA and Cash Flow Outlook
Following the results, Petti raised his 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $48.1 billion, factoring in growth in converged customers, recent price increases, and the Lumen contribution.
He also lifted his Q2 net postpaid phone customer addition estimate to 330,000 from 320,000. His Overweight rating and $33 year-end price target remain unchanged.
Petti projects EBITDA and free cash flow per share to grow at compound annual rates of 4% and 12%, respectively, through the end of 2028.
AT&T paid a quarterly dividend of $0.2775 per share on May 1st, representing an annualized yield of about 4.2%. The payout ratio stands at 37.25%.
Analyst Ratings and Institutional Activity
The broader analyst picture is generally constructive. Out of 21 analysts tracked by MarketBeat, one has a Strong Buy, thirteen have a Buy, and seven have a Hold. The consensus target price is $30.55.
Citigroup raised its target to $31.50 with a Buy rating in March. Scotiabank trimmed its target to $31.00 in late April, keeping a Sector Perform rating.
On the institutional side, Truist Financial increased its AT&T position by 3% in Q4, adding 163,766 units to hold 5,694,478 worth roughly $141.45 million. Several other firms also added to their positions in Q3.
AT&T’s one-year trading range sits between $22.95 and $29.79. The 50-day moving average is $27.52 and the 200-day is $26.05.
AT&T also launched new cybersecurity offerings for small businesses this week, including Dynamic Defense on AT&T Business Fiber.
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