TLDR
- EchoStar (SATS) is rallying as traders use it as a proxy bet on a potential $2 trillion SpaceX IPO
- A reported 5-for-1 SpaceX stock split could push EchoStar’s stake in SpaceX to around $11 billion
- The FCC approved a $40 billion spectrum sale to SpaceX and AT&T, which could help EchoStar manage its 2026 debt load
- EchoStar beat Q1 revenue expectations at $3.67B but missed EPS estimates, reporting ($0.51) vs. the ($0.48) consensus
- Analyst sentiment is mixed — consensus is “Hold” with an average price target of $138, though New Street Research just started coverage with a “Buy” and a $161 target
EchoStar (SATS) opened at $137.23 on Monday, trading near its 12-month high of $139.54, up 26.25% year-to-date.
The stock has become a popular proxy trade for SpaceX exposure. Reports of a potential $2 trillion SpaceX IPO — paired with a 5-for-1 stock split — have traders piling in, with EchoStar’s stake in the private space company potentially worth around $11 billion if those valuations hold.
That’s a compelling number for a stock that was trading at $14.90 just 12 months ago.
The FCC recently approved a $40 billion spectrum deal between SpaceX and AT&T. EchoStar holds spectrum assets tied to that deal, which could provide a meaningful path to addressing the company’s looming 2026 debt obligations.
EchoStar carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.17 and a current ratio of just 0.30, so those spectrum proceeds would be welcome. The company’s negative net margin of 97.56% means it’s still burning cash at scale.
Q1 Earnings: A Mixed Bag
On May 11, EchoStar posted Q1 results. Revenue came in at $3.67 billion, slightly ahead of the $3.65 billion analyst estimate. EPS missed, however — the company reported ($0.51) against expectations of ($0.48).
A year ago, EPS was ($0.71), so there is improvement on that front. Analysts are projecting ($2.51) EPS for the full year.
The stock was also added to the S&P 500, which brought fresh institutional buying and helped prompt some analysts to revisit price targets.
Analysts and Insiders Split
New Street Research kicked off coverage this week with a “Buy” rating and a $161 price target — the most bullish call on the street. UBS has a “Neutral” rating with a $127 target. Wall Street Zen moved from “Sell” to “Hold.” Weiss Ratings is still sitting at “Sell.”
The consensus sits at “Hold” with an average target of $138.
Meanwhile, insiders have been selling. COO John Swieringa offloaded 50,088 shares at an average of $113.58 in early March, reducing his stake by 16.5%. CEO Hamid Akhavan sold 71,005 shares at $107.52 around the same time, trimming his position by nearly 8%.
On the institutional side, Gabelli Funds lifted its stake by 6% in Q4, adding 17,100 shares to bring its total to 304,205 shares valued at roughly $33 million. Several smaller funds also initiated new positions. Institutional investors now own about 33.62% of the stock.
The stock’s 50-day moving average sits at $120.64, with the 200-day at $107.25 — both well below current trading levels.
New Street Research’s $161 target represents the high end of analyst expectations, while EchoStar’s market cap now stands at approximately $39.77 billion.
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