TLDR
- Viasat reported Q4 Ebitda of $370M and revenue of $1.2B, both slightly below Wall Street estimates
- EPS came in at -$0.02, beating the forecast of -$0.43 — a 95% positive surprise
- The stock fell roughly 9% on Friday despite the EPS beat, after a 846% run over the past 12 months
- Fiscal 2027 guidance calls for mid-single-digit revenue growth and flat Ebitda year-over-year
- Barclays reiterated an Equalweight rating with a $49 price target, flagging the stock as potentially overvalued
Viasat (VSAT) delivered a mixed set of results Thursday, and the market wasn’t shy about its verdict. The satellite operator saw its stock drop around 9% on Friday, trading near $79, after earnings that were close — but not quite close enough — to what analysts had pencilled in.
Q4 Ebitda came in at $370 million on revenue of $1.2 billion. Wall Street had been looking for $383 million and $1.2 billion respectively. Year-over-year, revenue was up 2%, though it landed 2.4% below StreetAccount consensus. Adjusted Ebitda fell 1% year-over-year and missed consensus by 3.5%.
On the EPS front, though, it was a different story. Viasat posted EPS of -$0.02 against a forecast of -$0.43 — a 95% beat. Analysts now expect the company to turn profitable in fiscal 2027, with EPS projected at $1.38.
Guidance Lands In Line
For fiscal 2027, Viasat guided for mid-single-digit revenue growth and Ebitda that’s flat to slightly higher year-over-year. Capital expenditure is expected at $950 million to $1 billion, with free cash flow of around $180 million, excluding Ligado lump sum payments.
The Defense and Advanced Technologies segment was a bright spot, posting 12% revenue growth year-over-year in Q4. Communication Services slipped 2%. Looking ahead, defense revenue is guided to grow in the mid-teens, while Communication Services is expected to see low single-digit growth.
Net debt decreased sequentially to $4.8 billion. Free cash flow for the quarter was $24 million — well below Barclays’ estimate of $91 million. Contract awards grew 9% year-over-year to $1.3 billion.
The SpaceX Effect
A 9% single-day drop is notable for most stocks. For Viasat, it barely registers on the bigger chart. Through Thursday’s close, VSAT was up 846% over the past 12 months.
That run has been fuelled partly by actual business wins — including a contract with the U.S. Space Force — and partly by the broader excitement around the space sector. SpaceX’s anticipated IPO, which could value the company at around $2 trillion, has lifted sentiment across the board.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is up 437% over the same 12-month period. EchoStar, buoyed by SpaceX’s spectrum deals, has gained around 557%.
Barclays reiterated its Equalweight rating on VSAT Friday with a $49 price target. With the stock trading near $79 and close to its 52-week high of $89.78, that target implies the bank sees meaningful downside. InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis also flags the stock as potentially overvalued at current levels.
Maritime revenues are now expected to stabilize by the end of 2027. The Equatys D2D project is on track to enter service in 2029.
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