TLDR
- Citi initiated coverage of Figma with a Buy rating and a $36 price target on Wednesday
- Analyst Tyler Radke cited strong AI-driven demand, with customers upgrading seats and using more credit packs
- FIG stock initially rose 5% on the news but has since reversed, falling 2.86% on the day
- Radke flagged new product launches and MCP server monetization as potential upcoming catalysts
- A share lock-up expiry in mid-August was flagged as a near-term risk
Figma (FIG) stock opened higher Wednesday after Citi initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $36 price target, sending the stock up 5% early in the session. But the rally didn’t hold. By midday, FIG had reversed and was trading down 2.86%, leaving traders with more questions than answers.
Analyst Tyler Radke led the initiation, pointing to strong AI-related demand as the core of his bullish thesis. Specifically, Radke said customer checks with hyperscalers and large financial services firms showed healthy seat upgrades and credit pack usage — both signs that Figma’s AI monetization strategy is gaining traction.
“Our proprietary customer and go-to-market checks with hyperscalers and large financial services firms suggest strong seat upgrades and credit pack utilization, which offer positive reads on AI-monetization strategy,” Radke wrote.
What Could Drive FIG Higher
Radke also pointed to a few potential near-term catalysts. New product launches and monetization of Figma’s Model Context Protocol server were both called out as items to watch. For investors looking for a near-term hook, those are the events on the calendar.
Figma’s revenue growth has been rapid, and the company carries high gross margins with improving cash generation. That gives it room to keep investing in AI features and sales expansion without burning through its balance sheet.
Still, the market’s reaction Wednesday tells a different story. When a Buy initiation with a price target premium can’t hold a 5% gain, it suggests the bar for new buyers is higher than a single analyst note.
Risks Still on the Radar
Radke did not ignore the risks. The most immediate: a share lock-up expiry is due in mid-August. That’s a known overhang that could bring additional selling pressure as early investors and insiders are freed to exit positions.
Beyond that, Figma is still carrying sizable accounting losses and has shown choppy cash flow. If AI computing costs climb or competition in the design software space heats up, margins could come under pressure.
The company’s year-to-date price performance reflects that uncertainty. FIG is down 51.89% so far in 2026, and the technical sentiment signal on the stock is currently rated Strong Sell.
Average daily trading volume sits at over 18 million, so liquidity isn’t the issue. The market cap stands at $9.78 billion.
Citi’s $36 target implies meaningful upside from current levels, but Wednesday’s price action shows the market isn’t ready to take that at face value just yet.
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