TLDR
- Bernstein analyst discussed quantum progress after meeting with IonQ’s CFO, citing 99.99% gate fidelity achieved in October 2025
- IonQ expects a fault-tolerant machine with 800+ logical qubits within three years
- The company shifted to electronic-based qubit controls, using CMOS layers and acquisitions of Oxford Ionics and Skywater to scale production
- Revenue surged 754.7% year over year to $64.67 million, though EPS missed estimates at -$0.34 vs. expected -$0.26
- Institutional ownership sits at 41.42%, with several new positions opened recently; IONQ opened at $54.90 on Thursday
IonQ (IONQ) opened at $54.90 on Thursday, building on recent momentum after a Bernstein SocGen analyst flagged quantum computing progress following a meeting with the company’s CFO.
Analyst Mark C. Newman highlighted that IonQ achieved gate fidelity of at least 99.99% in October 2025 using its trapped-ion approach on a two-qubit machine. That’s a technically meaningful milestone in a field where error rates have long been the main obstacle to real-world use.
Management is targeting a fault-tolerant machine with more than 800 logical qubits, which it believes will make quantum computing commercially viable. The company says it expects to reach that milestone within three years.
IonQ has also been quietly overhauling its hardware approach. It moved away from optical-based qubit controls toward electronic-based controls, which are cheaper to maintain and can be mass-produced. The company is now using CMOS layers and multiplexing to scale up qubit counts.
Those capabilities didn’t come from internal R&D. They came from two acquisitions: Oxford Ionics and Skywater.
Skywater Foundry Takes Over Chip Production
The Skywater foundry will now handle IonQ’s quantum chip production, replacing Infineon. The turnaround time is dramatically shorter: 2-3 months at Skywater versus 9-10 months at Infineon. IonQ completed the Skywater acquisition in January 2026 and expects efficiency to improve as the transition continues.
IonQ has positioned itself as the only provider of a vertically integrated quantum ecosystem covering computing, networking, cybersecurity, and sensing. It spent more than 2.3 times its 2025 revenue on R&D during that year.
Revenue Surges, But Losses Widen
On the financials, IonQ reported Q1 2025 revenue of $64.67 million, beating analyst expectations of $49.75 million. That’s a 754.7% jump year over year.
However, EPS came in at -$0.34, missing the consensus estimate of -$0.26. The company has a negative return on equity of 23.20%. Analysts expect full-year EPS of -$2.26.
Institutional investors are still moving in. Ballast Financial Advisors opened a new position worth around $449,000 in Q4. Clear Street Group came in with roughly $61.5 million in Q3. Jefferies, Swedbank, Forsta AP Fonden, and ProShare Advisors also added positions.
Institutional ownership now stands at 41.42%.
Analyst coverage is mixed. Rosenblatt maintained a Buy with a $100 price target as of June 11. JPMorgan lifted its target to $50 with a Neutral rating.
Morgan Stanley set a $48.50 target. DA Davidson cut its target to $35. Of 17 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it Buy, six Hold, and one Sell. The average price target is $68.63.
IONQ’s 52-week range runs from $25.89 to $84.64. Its 50-day moving average is $51.90 and 200-day is $44.84.
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