TLDR
- Oppenheimer reiterated a Perform rating on Tesla (TSLA), keeping its neutral stance
- Firm raised 2026 capex estimate to $29.4B — 25% above Street consensus of $23.5B
- Tesla’s investment story is shifting toward Physical AI leadership, per Oppenheimer
- Firm also raised marketable securities estimates to reflect ~$2.5B in gains from Tesla’s SpaceX investment
- Oppenheimer sees an upward trading bias into Q2 2026 earnings as investors track capital spend
Tesla (TSLA) closed at $191.82, down 4.95% on Thursday.
Oppenheimer reiterated its Perform rating on Tesla on Thursday, but the real story was a sharp upward revision to the firm’s capital expenditure estimates for the EV and AI company.
The firm now forecasts Tesla will spend $29.4 billion in capex in 2026 — a full 25% above Wall Street’s consensus estimate of $23.5 billion. That’s a wide gap, and it reflects Oppenheimer’s view that Tesla is accelerating investment in two key areas: Cortex capacity and Terafab.
Cortex is Tesla’s AI training supercomputer cluster. Terafab refers to Tesla’s plans for high-speed manufacturing. Both sit at the core of what Oppenheimer is now calling Tesla’s “Physical AI” strategy.
The Perform rating means Oppenheimer isn’t telling clients to buy or sell. It’s a hold. But the note itself signals that the firm views Tesla’s capex trajectory as a key thing to watch.
SpaceX Investment Adds to the Picture
Oppenheimer also bumped its estimates for Tesla’s marketable securities. The reason: a lift in the value of Tesla’s investment in SpaceX, which the firm puts at roughly $2.5 billion in gains following SpaceX’s IPO earlier this year.
SpaceX raised $75 billion in its IPO, with an additional $10.7 billion added when underwriters exercised their overallotment option — making it one of the largest tech IPOs on record. Tesla held a stake, and that position has grown in value.
SpaceX also announced a definitive merger agreement to acquire Anysphere, Inc. in an all-stock deal, executed through subsidiary X67 Inc. Options on SpaceX stock began trading recently too, giving investors more ways to play the position.
What Investors Are Watching
Oppenheimer says the Tesla investment thesis has moved. It’s no longer primarily about EV volumes or margins. The firm says investors are increasingly focused on Tesla’s ability to bring solar and storage capacity to market and speed up the learning cycles for its AI platform.
The note suggests that capital investment itself is becoming a leading indicator — that how much Tesla spends may tell investors more about its AI ambitions than quarterly delivery numbers do.
With a market cap of $2.53 trillion, Tesla’s scale is hard to ignore. Analyst price targets currently range from $62 to $401, reflecting just how divided Wall Street remains on where this company is headed.
Oppenheimer sees an upward trading bias heading into Q2 2026 earnings, as investors look to see whether the capex is translating into real progress.
Tesla trades at $191.82 as of Thursday’s close, with the stock down roughly 4.95% on the day.
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