TLDR
- RKLB stock has fallen nearly 30% from its late-May peak, currently trading around $107.98
- Q1 revenue hit a record $200.35 million, up 63.4% year-over-year, beating analyst estimates
- Rocket Lab joins the Nasdaq-100 on June 22, which could boost institutional demand
- Institutional ownership stands at 71.78%, with Capital Impact Advisors lifting its stake by 47.5%
- Wall Street’s average price target is $102.76, with a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating
Rocket Lab has taken a hit since SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO, with RKLB dropping nearly 30% from its late-May high of around $151.00. The stock opened Thursday at $107.98, sitting above its 50-day moving average of $104.00 but well below recent highs.
Despite the pullback, the underlying business is putting up strong numbers. Q1 revenue came in at $200.35 million, a record quarterly high and a 63.4% jump from the same period last year. That beat analyst expectations of $189.65 million.
Gross margins also hit a record 38.2% in Q1, pointing to improving unit economics as the business scales. The backlog now sits at $2.2 billion, giving the company solid visibility into future revenue.
Management has guided for another record quarter in Q2, continuing a streak that suggests Rocket Lab is in a genuine growth cycle rather than a one-off pop.
Defense Contracts Adding Revenue Diversity
Beyond launch services, Rocket Lab is making moves in defense. The company landed a $515 million SDA contract in 2024 to build satellites, marking its entry as a prime contractor for the U.S. government.
It also secured a $30 million deal with Anduril Industries to use its HASTE vehicle for hypersonic test launches from Launch Complex 2 in Virginia. These contracts are broadening the revenue base beyond commercial small-payload launches.
Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket remains the world’s most frequently launched small rocket, averaging 10–15 missions per year. Its nearest competitor in that segment is Galactic Energy’s Ceres-1.
Last month, the company announced its largest block-buy deal ever — five Neutron launches secured before the rocket has even flown.
Nasdaq-100 Inclusion and Institutional Interest
Rocket Lab will join the Nasdaq-100 on June 22. That’s a catalyst worth watching, as index inclusion typically drives forced buying from passive funds tracking the index.
Capital Impact Advisors increased its stake by 47.5% in Q4, adding 145,741 units to bring its total to 452,728. Overall institutional ownership now sits at 71.78%.
On the insider side, SVP Arjun Kampani sold 23,804 units at $147.43 on May 28, and insider Marvin Bradford Clevenger sold 3,500 units at $146.67 the same day. Insiders have sold $66.9 million worth of stock over the past 90 days.
Valuation remains a sticking point. RKLB trades at a forward P/S of around 68x, more than 3,500% above the sector median. That kind of multiple is typically reserved for high-margin software businesses, not hardware companies with 38% gross margins.
Neutron, the medium-payload rocket that much of the valuation appears to price in, hasn’t launched yet. A propellant tank testing failure pushed the inaugural flight back to Q4 2026, keeping execution risk on the table.
TD Cowen and Needham both raised their price targets to $120 with Buy ratings following Q1 results. KGI Securities initiated coverage on June 11 with a Neutral rating and a $105 target. The consensus average target sits at $102.76.
🚨 Our JUNE Stock Picks Are Live!
A new month means new opportunities. Our analysts have just released their top stock picks for June, highlighting companies with strong momentum that rank highly on our KO Score algorithm. We’re also now sharing trade ideas for both long-term and short-term investors, giving you more ways to spot potential opportunities in the market.
Sign up to Knockout Stocks today and get 50% off to unlock the full list and see which stocks made the cut.
Use coupon code Special50 for your exclusive discount!
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
