TLDR
- SpaceX stock is down more than 3% in premarket trading Monday, extending a two-day pullback after its post-IPO rally cooled.
- The stock debuted on June 12 at $135 and surged after listing, but has fallen roughly 9% over the last two full trading days.
- SPCX was still up 37% from its IPO price as of Thursday’s close.
- KeyBanc initiated coverage with a Sector Weight rating, saying the stock’s valuation looks stretched at 29x price-to-sales and 71x EV/EBITDA.
- Six analysts hold Buy ratings; CFRA is the only firm with a Sell rating on the stock.
SpaceX (SPCX) stock is trading down more than 3% in premarket on Monday, sitting around $178 after falling 5% and 3.6% on Wednesday and Thursday last week.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The stock hit $185 at Thursday’s close — still up 37% from its $135 IPO price — but the post-debut euphoria is clearly fading. The average investor who bought SPCX in the open market after the June 12 listing has seen most of their gains evaporate.
SpaceX went public in what became one of the most watched IPOs in recent memory. Its market cap briefly topped both Amazon and Microsoft in the days after listing, before pulling back below both.
The company posted a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 and lost $4.28 billion in Q1 2026. Bullish investors are betting on Elon Musk’s ability to drive long-term growth despite those losses.
Musk himself holds 42% of outstanding stock, locked up until June 2027. With only about 5% of the roughly 13 billion shares in the initial float, liquidity is tight.
KeyBanc Flags Valuation Concerns
KeyBanc initiated coverage Monday with a Sector Weight rating — the equivalent of a hold. The analysts called SpaceX “the dominant leader in space launch and space-adjacent verticals” but said the risk/reward looks balanced at current prices.
At roughly 29x price-to-sales and 71x EV/EBITDA on 2027 estimates, KeyBanc said the stock is trading at a steep premium to peers across space, AI, and communications services.
The firm pointed to Starship development as the key variable. The next-generation rocket is central to deploying Starlink V3 satellites, cutting launch costs, and eventually powering orbital data centers. Starship flight 13 is scheduled for June 29.
KeyBanc said it takes “a conservative approach” on the development timeline, calling the next 12–24 months a “prove it phase.”
How the Business Breaks Down
SpaceX runs three segments. Connectivity — home to Starlink — made up 61% of 2025 revenue, generating around $11.4 billion with a 63% adjusted EBITDA margin. That’s the profit engine right now.
The AI segment, which includes Grok and xAI infrastructure after the February 2026 merger, is still loss-making. But it’s landed major contracts: a deal with Anthropic worth roughly $1.25 billion per month, and a separate agreement with Google at $920 million per month.
KeyBanc projects AI segment revenue could reach $50.6 billion by 2027. The problem? Grok currently holds just 3.1% U.S. business adoption, compared to 41% for Anthropic and 39.5% for OpenAI.
Six analysts currently rate SPCX a Buy. CFRA is the lone firm with a Sell rating. Starship flight 13, set for June 29, will be closely watched as a near-term catalyst.
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