TLDR
- ASML reported €8.8 billion in Q1 2026 net sales, with a 53.0% gross margin and €2.8 billion in net income
- The company raised its full-year 2026 guidance to €36–40 billion in net sales
- Long-term targets point to €44–60 billion in annual revenue by 2030 with gross margins of 56–60%
- China accounted for 33% of ASML’s sales last year, and potential U.S. export restrictions remain a key risk
- Analyst price targets now sit near or below the current market price, suggesting much of the upside is priced in
ASML remains one of the most important companies in global chip manufacturing. Its EUV lithography machines are the only ones capable of producing the world’s most advanced semiconductors — and no one else makes them.
That near-monopoly has driven the stock to impressive heights. But after a strong run, the question investors are now asking is a simple one: how much upside is left?
Q1 2026 results gave little reason to worry about the business itself. ASML posted €8.8 billion in net sales, a 53.0% gross margin, and €2.8 billion in net income. The company then raised its full-year 2026 guidance to €36–40 billion in net sales, with gross margin of 51–53%.
Those are strong numbers by any measure.
The raised guidance signals that demand for advanced chip equipment isn’t slowing. ASML’s machines are needed whether the end product is an AI chip, a high-performance processor, or advanced memory.
Long-Term Targets Remain Ambitious
At its 2024 investor day, ASML laid out a path to €44–60 billion in annual revenue by 2030. Gross margins are expected to reach 56–60% over that period.
That runway reflects a structural shift, not just a cyclical bump. As chips get more complex, they require more lithography steps — and more ASML machines.
It’s a powerful position to be in. The company isn’t chasing growth. Growth is essentially built into the direction semiconductor manufacturing is heading.
That’s why investors have historically paid a premium for ASML stock. The quality of the business is hard to dispute.
China Risk Hasn’t Gone Away
The biggest cloud hanging over the stock is geopolitical. China made up 33% of ASML’s sales last year — a number that’s hard to ignore.
Reuters reported in April that a proposed U.S. law could tighten export restrictions on chipmaking equipment, including ASML tools and servicing. The Dutch government pushed back against further restrictions in May, according to Reuters.
The outcome of that standoff remains unclear. Any tightening could directly affect ASML’s revenue mix.
Beyond geopolitics, valuation is the other sticking point. MarketBeat lists ASML with a Moderate Buy consensus from 32 analysts. But price targets have shifted — one page showed an average of $1,772.63, while a June update cited $1,589.63.
The stock hasn’t been abandoned by Wall Street. But analysts are no longer pointing to a large gap between the price and the target.
That’s the situation ASML finds itself in. The business is elite. The moat is real. The long-term targets are credible.
But at the current price, investors are not getting a discount on any of that.
As of the most recent analyst data, the average price target on ASML sits at $1,589.63, putting it close to — or below — where the stock is currently trading.
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