TLDR
- Rocket Lab posted Q1 revenue of $200.3 million, up 63.5% year over year, with a backlog of $2.2 billion
- The planned $8 billion acquisition of Iridium Communications would add a live satellite network with 2.5 million subscribers
- A $190 million HASTE contract with Kratos Defense is the largest launch deal in Rocket Lab’s history
- Analyst consensus sits at “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $108.24, against a current price of around $83.91
- Risks include Neutron rocket delays, ongoing losses, heavy insider selling, and customer concentration
Rocket Lab (RKLB) is trading at $83.91, down from a 52-week high of $151.00, as space stocks broadly pull back following the SpaceX IPO frenzy.
SpaceX joining the Nasdaq-100 on July 7 has pulled attention — and capital — toward the sector. But Rocket Lab’s own story has plenty going on independent of that.
Q1 revenue came in at $200.3 million, up 63.5% year over year, beating analyst estimates of $189.65 million. Gross margin hit 38.2% on a GAAP basis, and backlog grew 20.2% sequentially to $2.2 billion.
The company signed 31 new Electron and HASTE contracts in Q1, plus five additional contracts for Neutron, its larger rocket still in development. At quarter-end, Rocket Lab had over 70 contracted launches in its backlog.
For Q2, the company guided revenue of $225 million to $240 million — roughly 16% sequential growth at the midpoint.
The Iridium Deal Changes the Equation
The planned $8 billion acquisition of Iridium Communications (IRDM) is a big swing. Iridium already runs a live low-Earth-orbit satellite network with more than 2.5 million subscribers across government, aviation, maritime, and defense sectors.
If the deal closes, Rocket Lab moves from building and launching satellites to also operating them and selling communication services. That’s a different business model — and a much larger addressable market.
In March 2026, Rocket Lab also locked in a $190 million HASTE contract with Kratos Defense for the U.S. Department of Defense’s MACH-TB 2.0 hypersonic testing program. It covers 20 test flights over four years and is the largest contract in company history. Defense revenue is becoming a real piece of the business.
Institutional investors are still buying. Swedbank AB increased its stake by 11.4% in Q1, adding 58,081 units to reach 567,331 total, valued at around $36.4 million. Overall, 71.78% of RKLB is held by institutions.
The Risks Are Real
Neutron, the larger rocket Rocket Lab needs for bigger government and commercial missions, has been pushed to Q4 2026 after a development setback. Any further delay would put pressure on the stock.
The company is still losing money. Net loss in Q1 was $45 million, and adjusted EBITDA loss is projected at $20 million to $26 million in Q2.
Customer concentration is a concern too. The top five customers made up 49% of 2025 revenue, and the top five backlog customers accounted for 77% of backlog. U.S. government contracts made up 47% of 2025 revenue.
Insider selling has picked up. CFO Adam Spice sold $8.9 million worth of stock in May, and SVP Arjun Kampani sold $9.5 million worth in June. Insiders have sold $362.8 million in stock over the past 90 days.
Analyst targets range from $96 to $150, with a Morgan Stanley bull case at $293. The consensus sits at “Moderate Buy” with an average target of $108.24 — still well above the current price.
Rocket Lab completed the U.S. Space Force’s VICTUS HAZE mission ahead of schedule, delivering a record-fast responsive launch that the company says reinforces its credibility in national security space.
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